Nashville woke up in the third, finally starting to generate some chances, but the Leafs were able to match them, and when Fisher took a five-minute penalty for boarding against Franson, who was pretty seriously cut against a stanchion, Nashville's chance lost all momentum. The Leafs added two on the ensuing powerplay, and that was it. Bernier held off the Predators to earn his first shutout as a Leaf.
I saw on the Preds broacast that they had the chances at 17-10; agreeing with me, but with one big problem: that graphic was at the 17 minute mark of the third, when I had the chances 11-9 for Toronto. I feel like I'm fairly generous with these summaries, but apparently not.
A summary of the scoring chances:
| Status | Overall | ES | ||
| Team | Toronto | Nashville | Toronto | Nashville |
| 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Total | 17 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
Follow below the fold for details.
This was my list of scoring chances from the game. If you see any problems or omissions (here or anywhere else), please go ahead and leave a comment.
| Club | St | P | Time | Note | Toronto | Nashville | ||||||||||
| TOR | PP | 1 | 07:00 | Ranger wide from Raymond | 43 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 35 | - |
| TOR | PP | 1 | 06:54 | Lupul wide from Raymond | 43 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 35 | - |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 04:43 | Van Riemsdyk from loose puck | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 36 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 1 | 01:58 | Ekholm from Gaustad | 43 | 19 | 46 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 26 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 1 | 00:18 | Lupul from Kadri | 11 | 43 | 19 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | SH | 2 | 17:47 | Ellis from Wilson | 11 | 42 | 4 | 36 | 45 | - | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 35 |
| NSH | SH | 2 | 17:47 | Wilson from Ellis | 11 | 42 | 4 | 36 | 45 | - | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 35 |
| NSH | SH | 2 | 17:42 | Fisher rebound from Wilson shot | 11 | 42 | 4 | 36 | 45 | - | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 35 |
| NSH | SH | 2 | 16:33 | Weber from Jones | 12 | 21 | 15 | 51 | 45 | - | 9 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 12:23 | Broll from rebound of Kadri shot | 43 | 19 | 46 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | SH | 2 | 08:51 | Fisher wide from Cullen | 12 | 21 | 15 | 36 | 45 | - | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 06:30 | Lupul wide from Kadri | 43 | 19 | 46 | 3 | 36 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 27 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 06:23 | Broll from loose puck | 43 | 19 | 46 | 3 | 36 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 27 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 06:19 | GOAL! Kessel from Van Riemsdyk | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 2 | 05:22 | Spaling steals from Gardiner | 43 | 81 | 46 | 4 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 04:58 | Ranger from Lupul | 43 | 19 | 46 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 2 | 00:09 | GOAL! van Riemsdyk steals from Rinne | 42 | 81 | 21 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 9 | 28 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 19:46 | Spaling wide from Smith | 63 | 12 | 32 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 19:28 | Leivo steals from Ekholm wide | 63 | 12 | 32 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 17:40 | Klein from Nystrom | 43 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 12:54 | Jones from Smith | 63 | 12 | 32 | 3 | 36 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 12:05 | Bozak from Van Riemsdyk | 42 | 81 | 21 | 15 | 44 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 11:57 | Rielly wide from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 15 | 44 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 11:47 | Van Riemsdyk from Kessel | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 36 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 10:13 | Ellis drives | 42 | 81 | 12 | 4 | 44 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 64 | 35 |
| TOR | PP | 3 | 06:32 | Kessel from rebound | 42 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 44 | 45 | 26 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 35 | - |
| TOR | PP | 3 | 03:01 | GOAL! Lupul deflects Gardiner shot | 43 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 35 | - |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 00:57 | Forsberg from Legwand | 11 | 28 | 12 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 8 | 42 | 35 |
| TOR | ES | 3 | 00:27 | Gunnarsson PS after stealing from Smith | 11 | 28 | 37 | 36 | 51 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 42 | 35 |
| NSH | ES | 3 | 00:19 | Hornqvist wide from loose puck | 43 | 19 | 46 | 44 | 51 | 45 | 11 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 35 |
The Extra Skater game profile.
The Leafs were outshot overall, and out Corsi'd as well, but in 5-on-5 close Corsi, which avoids special teams and score effects, were pretty much level with Nashville. This fits with what you saw, as the game was pretty level until Nashville started to push more for a response in the third.
Some notes:
1st - 7:01 - Ranger misses again while sneaking in on the PP; one of these days he'll hit one. Couple of nice passes from Raymond on the shift.
2nd - 16:33 - The best flurry of the game for the Predators in this powerplay, four chances in the two minutes, including some big shots from the point. With the game 0-0, excellent work from Bernier to keep the Leafs even.
2nd - 6:23 - Kadri's line was the best early, Kadri making some good passes, and Broll working well to get himself some chances.
2nd - 6:19 - A great pass from Van Riemsdyk, a backhander with a lot of pace on it.
2nd - 5:22 - Gardiner gets cleanly beaten by Spaling, a continuance of his struggles this season.
2nd - 0:09 - A killer goal, JVR stripping Rinne after the Preds goalie mishandles the puck off the boards. Don't think Rinne saw him coming, seemed to act like he had a lot more time.
3rd - 19:28 - Leivo's only really noticable moment, strips Ekholm of the puck and breaks in, but shoots wide.
3rd - 17:40 - Maybe Nashville's best chance of the night, a great pass across to Klein, but a perfect read by Bernier, who shuts it down and makes it look easy.
3rd - 12:54 - Nice play by Jones to jump in the play, and nice pass from Smith. Again, though, Bernier excellent.
3rd - 12:05 - Rielly's spectacular shift. Caught after Bozak is knocked down, he gets back to steal the pass and breakup a 3-on-1, then leads a rush down the ice that nearly ends with a Bozak goal. Then gets a shot, and after Nashville clear he chips it away from Nystrom to send Kessel in 2-on-1 for another chance.
3rd - 10:13 - Defending a lead in the third, you'd like to see the Leafs exert a little pressure on a guy carrying the puck through the middle of the zone. Ellis totally untouched as he gets a shot off.
3rd - 3:42 - First goal for the Leafs this year that's not a chance, Bozak's pass in off Jones' skate.
3rd - After not featuring in offensive chances at all in the first three games, Gunnarson jumped up for a chance last game, and now steals from Smith and breaks in to force a penalty shot. Clearly he's on an offensive hot streak.
The scoring chance numbers for the Leaf players:
| Player | F | A | D | TOI | ESF | ESA | ESD | EVTOI | PPF | PPA | PPD | SHF | SHA | SHD |
| Phaneuf | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23:36 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18:33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Franson | 5 | 6 | -1 | 18:46 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Mcclement | 2 | 4 | -2 | 15:04 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10:20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Raymond | 4 | 6 | -2 | 16:16 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 11:00 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Ranger | 6 | 5 | 1 | 19:10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:06 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Lupul | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16:19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13:47 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Riemsdyk | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21:36 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16:29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Orr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 08:19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 07:18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leivo | 1 | 2 | -1 | 09:02 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 08:44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gunnarsson | 5 | 5 | 0 | 21:23 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17:48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Ashton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 07:06 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 06:16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bozak | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22:05 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16:14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Kadri | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16:25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13:33 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rielly | 8 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 16:34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broll | 4 | 3 | 1 | 09:19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 09:19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardiner | 5 | 6 | -1 | 17:46 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 13:39 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Bolland | 1 | 2 | -1 | 12:20 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 11:14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kessel | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:05 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16:42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernier | 17 | 13 | 4 | 60:00 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 47:00 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
The top line had its first excellent game of the season. They've been good in the last couple, but both JVR and Bozak posting big positive splits is a first, primarily because they were only on for one even strength chance against easily their best of the year. Broll did well with Kadri and Lupul, though being on for a decent amount of chances mean that line ended up even.
Mason Raymond had a tough game, his second in a row, and Bolland was quiet, not on for many against, but not generating much either.
Morgan Rielly looked like a player you might want to keep for the season for the first time, highlighted by that spectacular shift mentioned above. His 7 even strength chances were a team high. Gunnarsson was also his excellent self, posting a +4 differential. It's a real shame he couldn't pot that penalty shot. The only down spot on the blue line was Gardiner, who continues to struggle, having a couple of miscues tonight and being on the ice for a team worst 5 chances against.
Of course, the star was Bernier, who turned aside everything Nashville sent at him. He didn't have any spectacular saves, but this seems to be to be because his positioning is so solid; he never had to really stretch. Add to that his good rebound control and you have a recipe for a good game.
The Predators:
| Player | F | A | D | TOI | ESF | ESA | ESD | EVTOI | PPF | PPA | PPD | SHF | SHA |
| Jones | 4 | 6 | -2 | 26:29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20:10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ellis | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:06 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Weber | 4 | 6 | -2 | 25:56 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 19:00 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Cullen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 17:40 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 11:48 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Klein | 4 | 10 | -6 | 18:06 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 15:39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Forsberg | 3 | 5 | -2 | 13:51 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 10:54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Legwand | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16:23 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12:02 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Fisher | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:39 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 15:17 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Spaling | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13:03 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 11:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Smith | 8 | 5 | 3 | 13:15 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10:27 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Clune | 1 | 0 | 1 | 09:11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 07:58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nystrom | 2 | 7 | -5 | 15:29 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 13:04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Hendricks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 09:28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hornqvist | 2 | 3 | -1 | 17:31 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 14:34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gaustad | 1 | 2 | -1 | 12:07 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 09:34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wilson | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:43 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 14:34 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ekholm | 4 | 11 | -7 | 19:47 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 17:05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bartley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10:58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rinne | 13 | 17 | -4 | 60:00 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 47:00 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Seth Jones finished a -2, and deflected in a powerplay goal, but he and Weber were fine overall, both even. The pairing that got badly beaten were Ekholm and Klein. Absurdly, Toronto had just three even strength chances when Ekholm wasn't on the ice. This is an astounding number; in his 17 ES minutes on the ice, Ekholm was on for more chances both ways than occurred in the other 30 minutes of even strength. Early in the game, before the Leafs' big line got going, it was that pairing who got badly beaten by Lupul-Kadri-Broll. Meanwhile, other than the two goals, Jones and Weber were on for just one other chance against.
Players with nice chance numbers:
Toronto - James Van Riemsdyk, Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bozak
Nashville - Seth Jones, Shea Weber
Players with poor chance numbers:
Toronto - Jake Gardiner, Mason Raymond
Nashville - Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Klein, Eric Nystrom
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