Monday, October 7, 2013

Game 3 - Oct 5th vs Ottawa - Leafs 5, Ottawa 4 (SO)

The Leafs' home opener was a wild affair, with the highest number of shots, Corsi events and scoring chances of the three games this year. The two sides traded a lot of chances, as giveaways and some less than stellar defensive play made for wide-open play. Toronto led five minutes in, but Ottawa answered with a pair, before Kadri tied the game on the powerplay. 

Toronto were the better team in the second, before a meltdown, Cowen scoring on a rebound and Spezza getting a fourth just 15 seconds later. This chased James Reimer from the net, and saw Jonathan Bernier make his home Leafs debut. He wouldn't allow another goal, as the Leafs outplayed the Sens substantially from that point on. Lupul pulled one back on a late powerplay, and JVR drew the teams level early in the third. While Ottawa had a couple of good third period chances, they had none in the last eight minutes, nor in the overtime. This has been a good sign in all three of the Leafs' games thus far this year; they've allowed just six chances in the last ten minutes of games, all while tied or defending leads.

The Leafs marginally outchanced the Sens in the first two periods, and were level on even strength, but that solid finish, and getting the only chances of overtime, saw them record their first game outchancing an opponent this year.

A summary of the scoring chances below the fold.


All TOR OTT
1 8 7
2 8 6
3 8 6
4 3 0
Total 27 19

Then only at even strength:
ES TOR OTT
1 5 6
2 7 6
3 7 6
4 2 0
Total 21 18

This was my list of scoring chances from the game. If you see any problems or omissions (here or anywhere else), please go ahead and leave a comment.


Club St P Time Note Toronto Ottawa
TOR ES 1 01:22 Lupul from Kadri 43 19 56 4 15 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
OTT ES 1 01:39 Smith from Conacher 63 12 56 15 51 34 14 15 89 4 77 41
OTT ES 1 03:52 Ryan from Michalek 42 81 21 3 44 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
OTT ES 1 03:53 Ryan from rebound 42 81 21 3 44 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR ES 1 04:21 GOAL! Raymond from Bolland 63 40 12 15 51 34 14 15 25 2 46 41
OTT ES 1 07:33 GOAL! Turris from Cowan 43 19 40 4 44 34 7 25 16 2 46 41
TOR ES 1 08:26 Kessel from Van Riemsdyk 42 81 21 3 36 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
OTT ES 1 10:27 GOAL! Conacher steals from Franson 43 19 56 4 44 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
TOR ES 1 12:36 Bolland from turnover 63 40 12 15 51 34 14 15 25 3 65 41
TOR ES 1 13:28 Devane from Orr 11 28 59 15 51 34 44 22 28 4 77 41
OTT SH 1 14:18 Spezza from rebound 11 42 3 36 34 - 19 6 9 46 65 41
TOR PP 1 16:20 Kessel from Phaneuf wide 43 81 19 3 51 34 7 16 2 4 41 -
TOR PP 1 17:29 Lupul from Ranger 43 19 12 15 51 34 14 2 4 41 - -
TOR PP 1 17:33 GOAL! Kadri from Raymond 43 19 12 15 51 34 14 2 4 65 41 -
OTT ES 1 19:04 Turris drive 43 19 56 15 51 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
TOR ES 2 00:27 Van Riemsdyk drive 42 81 21 3 36 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR ES 2 02:41 Kessel from rebound 42 81 21 4 36 34 19 6 9 2 4 41
TOR ES 2 02:42 Kessel wide from rebound 42 81 21 4 36 34 19 6 9 2 4 41
OTT ES 2 03:46 Greening wide from Smith 11 40 12 4 44 34 14 15 25 3 65 41
TOR ES 2 05:04 Abbott drive 43 56 59 15 51 34 7 44 89 2 46 41
OTT ES 2 05:47 Michalek from Spezza 42 81 21 3 36 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR ES 2 06:24 Kessel from Rielly 42 81 19 4 44 34 44 22 9 4 65 41
TOR ES 2 07:35 Bolland from Raymond 63 40 12 15 51 34 14 15 25 4 77 41
OTT ES 2 08:15 Conacher from loose puck 43 19 56 4 51 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
OTT ES 2 10:40 MacArthur from Conacher 43 19 56 4 44 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
OTT ES 2 10:41 GOAL! Cowen from rebound of MacArthur shot 43 19 56 4 44 34 7 89 16 2 46 41
OTT ES 2 10:56 GOAL! Spezza from loose puck 42 81 21 3 36 34 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR ES 2 13:23 Phaneuf drive 42 19 12 3 36 45 19 6 9 2 46 41
TOR PP 2 19:43 GOAL! Lupul from Raymond 43 19 12 15 51 45 44 22 2 65 41 -
OTT ES 3 01:50 MacArthur steals from Franson 42 81 4 44 45 - 7 16 2 46 41 -
OTT ES 3 02:40 Michalek from Spezza 42 81 21 3 36 45 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR ES 3 02:52 GOAL! Van Riemsdyk from Kessel 42 81 21 15 51 45 19 6 9 3 65 41
TOR PP 3 05:06 Kadri wide from Lupul 43 19 12 15 51 45 44 22 2 4 41 -
OTT ES 3 07:02 Wiercoch from Spezza 43 19 12 15 51 45 19 6 9 46 65 41
TOR ES 3 07:14 Bozak from Kessel 42 81 21 3 36 45 19 6 9 3 65 41
OTT ES 3 09:15 Smith from turnover 11 43 28 15 51 45 14 15 25 4 77 41
TOR ES 3 10:23 Van Riemsdyk from Kessel 42 81 21 3 36 45 19 6 9 3 65 41
OTT ES 3 11:03 Macarthur from Turris 42 81 21 3 36 45 7 89 16 2 3 41
OTT ES 3 11:13 Spezza from MacArthur 11 43 40 15 51 45 19 6 16 2 3 41
TOR ES 3 13:15 Lupul from Bolland 63 19 12 4 44 45 7 89 16 2 46 41
TOR ES 3 18:18 Lupul from rebound of Raymond shot 63 19 12 15 51 45 15 44 22 4 65 41
TOR ES 3 19:01 Van Riemsdyk from Kessel 42 81 21 15 51 45 15 44 22 4 65 41
TOR ES 3 19:13 Ranger drives 11 63 19 15 51 45 19 22 9 4 65 41
TOR ES 4 00:35 Rielly from rebound 43 19 3 44 45 - 7 16 2 46 41 -
TOR ES 4 01:43 Bolland wide from McClement 11 63 3 36 45 - 44 6 2 65 41 -
TOR PP 4 04:52 Van Riemsdyk from Phaneuf 42 81 21 3 45 - 7 3 4 41 - -

 The Extra Skater game profile.

The Leafs also took the Corsi win for the first time this year, at 80-68. At 5-on-5, though it was the Sens who had the Corsi edge, 58-49. 

Also, here's a link to  a view from the other side of scoring chances, from the6thsens. As you'd expect, pretty similar, though I ended up going with a couple that they didn't.


The overall scoring chance numbers for the Leaf players:
Player F A D TOI
Phaneuf 9 7 2 25:05
Franson 5 7 -2 23:26
McClement 3 4 -1 13:32
Raymond 10 3 7 19:00
Ranger 14 5 9 21:57
Lupul 12 7 5 18:22
Van Riemsdyk 9 6 3 23:26
Orr 1 1 0 08:44
Reimer 14 13 1 30:56
Gunnarson 8 5 3 19:24
Bodie 3 3 0 08:14
Bozak 11 8 3 24:13
Kadri 8 9 -1 15:51
Rielly 3 8 -5 18:07
Bernier 13 6 7 34:04
Gardiner 14 6 8 21:23
Abbott 2 6 -4 05:16
Devane 2 0 2 06:52
Bolland 7 1 6 18:22
Kessel 11 7 4 24:46

And at even strength alone:
Player F A D EVTOI
Phaneuf 7 6 1 18:29
Franson 5 7 -2 19:00
McClement 3 3 0 12:42
Raymond 6 3 3 16:14
Ranger 10 5 5 19:05
Lupul 7 7 0 15:23
Van Riemsdyk 8 6 2 18:00
Orr 1 1 0 08:44
Reimer 11 12 -1 26:07
Gunnarson 8 4 4 18:34
Bodie 3 3 0 08:14
Bozak 10 7 3 18:57
Kadri 3 9 -6 12:45
Rielly 3 8 -5 17:42
Bernier 10 6 4 29:45
Gardiner 9 6 3 19:01
Abbott 2 6 -4 05:16
Devane 2 0 2 06:52
Bolland 7 1 6 17:48
Kessel 9 7 2 19:40

Dave Bolland was the best Leaf playing on Saturday, and Randy Carlyle knew it, putting him out for nearly 18 minutes, almost as much as the Bozak line. His 7 chances for were excellent, but critically he was on the ice for just one against, something that only Orr and Devane, who played little, could better. The big line was also playing well, allowing a lot of chances, but this time at least managing a positive split. Bozak tied for the team lead in being on for ten chances. 

Kadri continues to struggle, and its not surprising that Lupul, who's been very good, ended up with Bolland and Raymond, who had another good game, towards the end of the third. Kadri's nine ES chances against were the worst on the team. Devane had a good few minutes in his debut, while Abbott had a bad night, on for more than a chance against a minute.

Paul Ranger in this game is the classic example of eyes differing from stats. He seemed to struggle at times, and committed some giveaways, but he had an excellent chance ratio, equaling Bozak by being on for 10 chances. He also had the best Corsi Rel of any of the Leafs' defenders. I wonder how the talk about him would have differed if he'd made that shot late, instead of hitting the bar.

Jake Gardiner had his first positive game, and Gunnarson was his steady self. Franson, who had some poor moments alongside a rookie, was OK, while Rielly's extra time late in the game came in spite of some serious struggles.


The Sens:
Player F A D TOI
Cowen 9 14 -5 21:46
Methot 8 7 1 23:40
Phillips 2 13 -11 23:43
Ryan 8 9 -1 16:52
Turris 8 6 2 20:51
Michalek 7 10 -3 19:37
Greening 3 5 -2 11:45
Smith 3 5 -2 16:18
Macarthur 9 4 5 18:43
Spezza 8 9 -1 19:42
Condra 0 7 -7 12:18
Neil 3 3 0 10:40
Kassian 0 1 -1 04:49
Anderson 19 27 -8 65:00
Pageau 0 8 -8 13:22
Wiercioch 9 6 3 19:12
Karlsson 8 13 -5 27:13
Corvo 2 2 0 14:38
Conacher 7 3 4 14:21

And at even strength:
Player F A D EVTOI
Cowen 9 9 0 16:35
Methot 8 6 2 20:49
Phillips 2 8 -6 18:21
Ryan 7 9 -2 15:35
Turris 8 4 4 17:10
Michalek 6 10 -4 16:54
Greening 3 3 0 10:39
Smith 3 5 -2 15:50
Macarthur 9 3 6 16:21
Spezza 7 9 -2 17:59
Condra 0 5 -5 09:21
Neil 3 3 0 00:40
Kassian 0 1 -1 04:49
Anderson 18 21 -3 55:52
Pageau 0 6 -6 11:04
Wiercioch 8 6 2 16:55
Karlsson 7 11 -4 24:37
Corvo 2 2 0 14:38
Conacher 7 3 4 14:09

Clarke MacArthur's comments made it clear he didn't have a lot of love for Randy Carlyle, and he did his best to show him what he was missing with an excellent game, leading the Sens with nine chances and at +6. Turris and Conacher were also both excellent, making a very effective second line.

Condra and Pageau were gaping holes, generating no chances and on for a bundle, given their minutes. I might have been a little harsh to Pageau with one chance that I just rejected, but even with that he would have struggled. Spezza and Ryan on the top line weren't anything special, decent, but allowing a number of chances against.

Cowen had a number of nice moments, including his goal, and had a solid game overall. Karlsson never really seemed to get going offensively the way that he can, ended up a mild negative. Phillips was the worst on the defense, with a team low -6.


Players with nice chance numbers:
Toronto - Dave Bolland, Paul Ranger, Carl Gunnarson
Ottawa - Clarke MacArthur, Cory Conacher, Kyle Turris

Players with poor chance numbers:
Toronto - Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly, Cody Franson
Ottawa - Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Condra, Chris Phillips

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