Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Scoring Chance Summary - Forwards

The regular forwards for the Leafs are discussed, along with a listing of Corsi and chance percentages.



Troy Bodie
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
47
ES
43.0%
0.5%
81
108
4.0
5.3
42.9%
08:36
5-on-5 Close
40.7%
-1.0%
45
67
3.8
5.7
40.2%
05:02

 

In his early season run with the Leafs, Bodie was one of the worst forwards, with chance percentages down below 30%. In the second half, though, he was one of the team's few pleasant surprises, consistently doing well with Kulemin and Raymond.  While he's not really of any use offensively, his defensive numbers have been solid. Partly, this is due to fairly soft opposition and favourable zone starts, but those indicators have nudged up a little over the last few weeks. He's never going to be anything special, but as a cheap depth forward he serves his purpose.

Dave Bolland
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
23
ES
44.1%
3.1%
52
71
3.6
4.9
42.3%
12:41
5-on-5 Close
44.0%
2.6%
26
38
3.2
4.6
40.6%
07:08

 
A difficult season for Bolland, who had decent chance numbers, around average for the team, in his initial games, but was terrible on his return to the team. Whether he was rushed back to try and provide a boost, I can't say, but it wouldn't surprise me, as he has not looked good at all. Bolland's early season offensive flurry, with 9 points in his first 12 games, was misleading, as he ended up being one of the least offensive players on the team, in terms of chances. His defensive numbers were quite good, and if you look only at the pre-injury numbers, he was one of the best defensive forwards. If he can get back to 100%, he'll be a useful player, but given that he'll likely be searching for a big contract, I'm not convinced that even healthy Bolland is worth a long, large deal.

Tyler Bozak
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
58
ES
42.9%
0.2%
302
358
6.1
7.2
45.8%
17:05
5-on-5 Close
42.1%
0.8%
174
212
6.1
7.5
45.1%
09:45

 
Bozak is a difficult player to get a great bead on, partly because he is so closely tied to Phil Kessel; he's one of a small number of regular NHL forwards who spent more than 90% of their ice time with one teammate. His offensive performance this season has been excellent with that top line, and he has one of the best offensive chance rates on the team. He's slightly above average in chances, but he's behind his two more heralded teammates. His real problem is on the defensive end, where he is far and away the worst regular Leaf in the rate of chances against when he's on. While there's no doubt that some less than stellar backchecking from his linemates contributes to this, seeing people claim that Bozak is a good defensive centre, as you occasionally do when the '#1 centre' debate comes up, is bizzare to me. Given how offensively potent that top line is, I think the Leafs can be successful with Bozak; the question is how much other quality up front they need to add to make up for the top unit's defensive shortcomings.

David Clarkson
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
60
ES
42.4%
0.3%
183
257
4.3
6.1
41.6%
14:01
5-on-5 Close
42.1%
1.6%
116
159
4.7
6.4
42.2%
08:17

 
I thought before the season that David Clarkson would have a poor season; there's been some good discussion of how he went from a high-possession system in Jersey to maybe the worst possession team in the league. However, seeing just how miserable he's beem has been kind of shocking to me. His Corsi numbers aren't bad, a little above average, and his chance numbers only slightly lag behind the team's averages. However, he just has been unable to turn that into points, and had a terrible shooting percentage. One problem for Clarkson is his zone starts, as Carlyle's usage of him meant that he was one of the most DZone biased of the  Leaf forwards, a contrast from his role with the Devils, where he was closer to the average.

Peter Holland
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
39
ES
42.9%
0.7%
103
162
4.6
7.3
38.9%
11:23
5-on-5 Close
41.6%
-0.7%
65
94
5.1
7.4
40.9%
06:31

 
Holland, acquired from Anaheim in a November trade that saw Jesse Blacker head to Anaheim, is a bit of a mystery to me. His Corsi numbers are decent, better than the likes of Bozak, though behind Bolland and Kadri, but his chance numbers have lagged well behind the Corsi for virtually the entire season. One consistent problem for the centre is that he's had a lot of troubles defensively. He's been as vulnerable as the top line players when it comes to chances against, but creates substantially fewer. This combination means that at ES, he is the worst net player to have played at least 400 minutes. His numbers are better in the close sample, but I'm far from convinced that's he's a long-term solution at centre, particularly if Kadri is moved in the offseason. His offense isn't clearly strong enough to make up for the defensive weakness on a team that already has defending from the forwards as an Achilles heel.


Nazem Kadri
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
78
ES
45.3%
3.7%
330
384
5.7
6.6
46.2%
14:51
5-on-5 Close
45.2%
4.9%
190
222
5.8
6.7
46.1%
08:26

 
Kadri's 2013 season was a bit misleading, as his sky high shooting percentage and large PDO meant that even if his play stayed at a similar level, he was likely to have a substantial falloff in terms of production. Indeed, that's what we saw this season, as despite being one of the Leafs better forwards in chances and in Corsi, he saw his numbers go down quite a bit. This included during the time he spent with Kessek and JVR on the top line as that unit had strong chance numbers, but hardly produced at all. It's tough to tell how much of Kadri's struggles are due to problems for him, versus the struggles of linemates like Lupul and Clarkson, and he will be a key player to watch going into a critical season in his career, whether it happens in Toronto or elsewhere.


Phil Kessel
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
82
ES
44.1%
2.1%
460
517
6.4
7.2
47.1%
17:30
5-on-5 Close
44.2%
3.4%
255
295
6.2
7.2
46.4%
09:58

 
Kessel is without a doubt the team's MVP, as during the periods where he went cold and struggled to score, the team was absolutely nowhere, most notably in this horrific final stretch. Only Kulemin among the forwards posted better percentages than Kessel, and his Corsi numbers were also among the best of the team. At 5-on-5 close, Kessel's offensive chance numbers were slightly worse than Bozak, but his defensive numbers were substantially better. His overall point and shooting numbers ended up looking an awful lot like his 2012 season, despite the fact that his Corsi number was substantially lower (likely a Carlyle effect), and he had a higher percentage of defensive zone starts. Kessel had his strongest period in mid-January, when it seemed like the Leafs had pulled out of a tailspin, only to fall back and have one of his worst stretches to close out the year.
 
Nikolai Kulemin
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
70
ES
41.3%
-2.0%
216
235
4.5
4.9
47.9%
13:34
5-on-5 Close
40.6%
-1.7%
140
135
4.9
4.7
50.9%
08:11

 

Kulemin has been a real mystery to me this season,  as in the second half of the season he's been one of the most impressive Leafs in terms of chances, leading the team at both ES and 5-on-5 close, and in fact, being the only player on the team above even in close chances, far superior to anyone else. The statistical basis is simple; Bolland is the only regular better than him on defense, and while Bolland has been poor offensively, Kulemin generated chances at the same rate as the likes of Lupul and Clarkson. He's slightly below average in Corsi, but that's no surprise, as only McClement gets tougher zone starts up front, and he typically got similar levels of opposition to the top line (in fact, he was very similar at home, but on the road got much easier opponents). What's also interesting about this is how miserably Kulemin's season started. He was hurt, and then really struggled on his return, but had a couple of long stretches where he substantially outchanced his opponents. Given that it seems unlikely he'll stay in Toronto, he it seems like he will make a useful player for another franchise.


Joffrey Lupul
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
69
ES
42.5%
-1.1%
247
355
4.5
6.4
41.0%
15:59
5-on-5 Close
40.5%
-2.9%
142
200
4.8
6.7
41.5%
08:37

 
After two solid seasons, Lupul really had a tough time in 2014, finishing with some of the worst point rate statistics since the beginning of his career. Part of this is likely down to his role; over the last few seasons, he benefited from getting a decent amount of icetime with Kessel, and this year he got much less than any of those seasons. This shows in a substantial drop in his QoT, and while he did get weaker opponents than the top line, he didn't have much offensive chemistry with Kadri, or with whoever else played on that line. A couple of the combinations that featured him, with Kadri and Clarkson and with Holland and Raymond, were among the worst of the regular offensive lines. His defensive game was weak, but what really damned him, and in a lot of ways the Leafs as a whole, was an inability to generate chances. A year like this for an injury-prone player at 30 is a red flag, and if Lupul can't find his game again next season, then between him and Clarkson there will be some major trouble on the wings.

Jay McClement
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
81
ES
38.7%
-5.0%
154
231
3.4
5.0
40.0%
11:19
5-on-5 Close
37.3%
-5.7%
89
144
3.3
5.3
38.2%
06:45

 
Jay McClement should not be back with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was brought in as a shorthanded specialist and defensive player, and while he got a lot of credit for the large rise of the Leafs in the SH% ranks during the lockout year, he's got very little blame for the disintegration of that unit this season. In addition, while he did have decent defensive rate numbers in chances, he was hapless on offense, with only Colton Orr worse at generating chances. He was the single worst regular in Corsi, and the only serious player below 40%, an abysmal number.  To be fair, he was used extremely defensively, but he wasn't able to hold his own under those circumstances 5-on-5. One of the major reasons the Leafs struggled without Bozak was that he was suddenly forced to take a much larger role, one he wasn't capable of filling. I've heard the argument that McClement should be kept to prevent an even bigger lack of depth at centre; I'd suggest he's more of a example of the lack of depth than a solution.

Colton Orr
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
54
ES
39.1%
-4.3%
36
56
2.5
3.9
39.1%
05:20
5-on-5 Close
38.7%
-3.7%
23
31
2.5
3.4
42.6%
03:21

 
Orr is an odd player to assess, given that he played extremely little, and usually played against other fourth lines when he did. He was a low-event player, as he averaged 6.4 chance events per 20 minutes, with the no other forward discussed here under eight. Despite getting only a few soft minutes, he was still one of the worst player in terms of chance percentages and Corsi. Of course, how much any of this matters is questionable, as Orr is not on the team to be a hockey player.

Mason Raymond
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
82
ES
44.2%
1.9%
274
373
4.8
6.5
42.3%
14:01
5-on-5 Close
43.6%
2.1%
145
210
4.4
6.4
40.8%
07:58

 
Raymond's point numbers look a lot better than his last couple of seasons, but getting a good chunk of effective powerplay time and making it through a season healthy are the main reasons for that, as his 5-on-5 rate stats look markedly similar. After having a really poor start in chances, he gradually improved ending up around the team average at ES, but was substantially worse 5-on-5 close. He faced some similar problems to Lupul, as he just didn't generate a lot of chances. His Corsi numbers were pretty solid though, and he could have a future with the Leafs as a complimentary piece, depending on his price. He's not a player that they should go to any great lengths to retain, but they could make (and have made) worse decisions.

James Van Riemsdyk
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
80
ES
44.2%
1.9%
409
469
6.2
7.1
46.6%
16:27
5-on-5 Close
44.3%
3.3%
238
279
6.2
7.2
46.0%
09:40

 

After showing so much potential on his Leaf arrival in the shortened season, JVR really showed it over a full season this year. His combination with Kessel was spectacular, as the two of them dragged the Leafs into contention for a playoff spot that the team didn't deserve to be close to. A lot of the details of JVR's season are similar to Kessel's, with the caveat that they aren't quite as good. He's close in Corsi, but a little behind 81. The same is true of chances, both ES and 5-on-5 close. From watching him, I think that Van Riemsdyk's defensive game still needs a fair amount of work, and I'd pick him out, perhaps unfairly, as being the biggest reason why the top line gives up a lot of chances against. I didn't really mention it with Kessel, but it holds for him as well; these two played a lot of minutes for the Leafs this year, as well as in the Olympics, and you have to wonder if the hectic schedule down the stretch was part of the reason that they were unable to score to their potential in the last 15 games or so.

Player
GP
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
Kulemin
70
40.6%
-1.7%
142
135
5.0
4.7
51.3%
08:11
Kessel
82
44.2%
3.4%
255
295
6.2
7.2
46.4%
09:58
Kadri
78
45.2%
4.9%
190
222
5.8
6.7
46.1%
08:26
Van Riemsdyk
80
44.3%
3.3%
238
279
6.2
7.2
46.0%
09:40
Bozak
58
42.1%
0.8%
174
212
6.1
7.5
45.1%
09:45
Orr
54
38.7%
-3.7%
23
31
2.5
3.4
42.6%
03:21
Clarkson
60
42.1%
1.6%
116
159
4.7
6.4
42.2%
08:17
Lupul
69
40.5%
-2.9%
142
200
4.8
6.7
41.5%
08:37
Raymond
82
43.6%
2.1%
145
210
4.4
6.4
40.8%
07:58
Bolland
23
44.0%
2.6%
26
38
3.2
4.6
40.6%
07:08
Bodie
47
40.7%
-1.0%
45
67
3.8
5.7
40.2%
05:02
McClement
81
37.3%
-5.7%
89
144
3.3
5.3
38.2%
06:45