First, the team totals:
The second quarter of the season actually saw the Leafs improve marginally in terms of chances against, as the last 20 games have seen them at 45% at ES.
From extraskater.com, here are the Corsi data for the Leafs in the same situations:
The Leafs are now slightly outchancing their Corsi percentages, by about a percent and a half at even strength.
Of course, something that you can't avoid when tracking these team numbers is score effects - these can substantially change the balance of chances between teams, as we'll see. So I've compiled some data based on periods and scores.
This period data considers only full strength play.
The Leafs have roughly been the same in all three periods, but much better in extra periods. For some small comparison to overtime, the Leafs are at 7-15, ~32% at 'regular' 4-on-4.
What about score effects? First, I looked at 5-on-5 Close, which is defined as within a goal in the first two frames, and tied in the third.
The Leafs are very marginally better in the close situations, but not by enough to indicate any serious difference.
Next, I asked myself about the Leafs ability to chase leads, versus their ability to defend leads, in the third period; I looked at all the chances generated for and against the Leafs in the 3rd period while the game was not tied, but within two.
This is a pretty striking difference, and fits with my original idea, that the Leafs were under far too much pressure while defending leads, versus the amount they put on opponents (hardly surprising, given their overall struggles). Essentially, what the data says is that while chasing a lead in the third period, the Leafs have the same chance percentage that we would expect from an average NHL team (in fact, 50.5% is what extraskater gives as the median Corsi for all NHL teams 5-on-5), while they allow opponents to get more than 60% of chances when holding a lead. Of course, it's also important how the Leafs play at other times for comparison. The Leafs have been at 42.1% when the game is tied (data below). This suggests they don't actually do a whole lot worse when defending leads, though that's more a damnation of their regular 5-on-5 play than praise of their defensive efforts. We would expect the Leafs to face some substantial pressure when they have the lead late; after all, they're under pressure for much of the game anyway.
Next, an overall summary of the Leafs' performance at different score states.
The Leafs are worse when tied then when leading or trailing, and they are almost an NHL average team in terms of chances when down by one.
And next, the combination data,breaking down the data by both period and score.
Of the states with decent sample sizes (>20), the Leafs have been best trailing by one in the second, but what's really striking is how poor Toronto has been while tied in the second. They have been worse generating chances while tied in the second than while defending a third period lead. I'm not sure that this data has a whole lot of value, given that the sample sizes are beginning to get relatively small. What's really odd about this is that the Leafs have actually been above their overall average in every other state during the second period, making the period their best, despite the struggles while tied.
I've also put together some charts on the Leafs performances thus far, for those who like a little visualization:
Cumulative overall and ES chance percentages:
And 5-game cumulative stretches; there have only been a few brief periods all season in which the Leafs have been over 50%, and a couple of very poor runs down around 40%.
Next up, ST%. This is a net special teams performance, in essence the percentage of chances the Leafs get while on the ice at non-even strength. It's both indicative of how much time the team spends on powerplay versus penalty killing, and how effective they are at generating/preventing chances while those units are on.