Game 3 - Oct 5th vs Ottawa - Leafs 5, Ottawa 4 (SO)

The Leafs' home opener was a wild affair, with the highest number of shots, Corsi events and scoring chances of the three games this year. The two sides traded a lot of chances, as giveaways and some less than stellar defensive play made for wide-open play. Toronto led five minutes in, but Ottawa answered with a pair, before Kadri tied the game on the powerplay. 

Toronto were the better team in the second, before a meltdown, Cowen scoring on a rebound and Spezza getting a fourth just 15 seconds later. This chased James Reimer from the net, and saw Jonathan Bernier make his home Leafs debut. He wouldn't allow another goal, as the Leafs outplayed the Sens substantially from that point on. Lupul pulled one back on a late powerplay, and JVR drew the teams level early in the third. While Ottawa had a couple of good third period chances, they had none in the last eight minutes, nor in the overtime. This has been a good sign in all three of the Leafs' games thus far this year; they've allowed just six chances in the last ten minutes of games, all while tied or defending leads.

The Leafs marginally outchanced the Sens in the first two periods, and were level on even strength, but that solid finish, and getting the only chances of overtime, saw them record their first game outchancing an opponent this year.

A summary of the scoring chances below the fold.

Game 1 - Leafs @ Montreal - Video Review - Period 3

Game Summary 
Period 1 
Period 2
Continuing with this series, here are the final period chances, below the fold:

Game 1 - Leafs @ Montreal - Video Review - Period 2

Game Summary 
Period 1
Period 3


Continuing with this series, here are the second period chances, below the fold:

Game 1 - Leafs @ Montreal - Video Review - Period 1

This is a feature I'll try and do when I can, it's fairly time-consuming, but fun. I'm going to look at video of all the scoring chances I've tabulated, and append some comments. 



The scoring chances for the whole game are listed here.
Period 2
Period 3

For this one, the season opener at Montreal, the first period chances are below the fold.

Game 2 - Oct 2nd @ Philadelphia - Leafs 3, Philadelphia 1

The second game of a back-to-back of road home openers saw the Leafs head to Philadelphia. In a similar story to their opening game, the first period was a struggle, as they took six minutes in penalties, and faced a myriad of Flyer chances, eventually giving up a goal in the last 10 seconds of the frame. They settled down in the second, though they still faced some penalty trouble, and pulled level late in the period with Kessel's first of his big new contract. Dave Bolland was then the man in the third, scoring early for the game winner, and adding a late insurance marker.

Of particular note was just how well the Leafs defended with a lead in the third, compared to the other parts of the game; the last ten minutes saw just two Philadelphia chances, and neither of those were really 1-A grade. While they were saved a desperate last minute scramble by a late penalty, they successfully bottled up the Flyers in the last few minutes. When the games have been more open early this year, Toronto hasn't been great, but when they've buckled down, they have managed to control chances and stay even.

Game 1 - Oct 1st @ Montreal - Leafs 4, Montreal 3

An entertaining game to start the new season; the Leafs got the opening goal through James Van Riemsdyk, but trailed at the end of the first. They came back to take the lead in the second, Tyler Bozak scoring a short handed goal, then added an insurance marker in the third, one which they'd need after a late Lars Eller goal.

The game was marred by George Parros' injury, hitting his head on the ice during his second fight of the game with Colton Orr, a bizzare reprisal of a similar incident between the two from 2011, with Orr the one left struggling on the ice in that case.

Montreal came out of the gate flying, but the Leafs gradually got back even, partly thanks to a number of powerplays. That the Leafs survived the first period is a real testament to James Reimer, as they were outchanced 11-1 in the second half of the frame,  including three chances on a spectacular late shift by Eller, Moen and Parros. The Leafs managed to get things on track later in the game, however, allowing just 5 chances in the last 30 minutes. While Montreal pressed hard in the last couple of minutes after Eller's goal, I only saw one shot that made it through to Reimer, a fairly weak one from Subban at the boards. It almost went in anyway, with Reimer down and out, but I didn't count it. Other than that, the shots the Habs attempted were blocked or deflected by the Leafs' defenders.

Interestingly, despite there being a bit of a feeling after the Parros injury that the Canadiens had the energy sucked out of them, an argument furthered by Raymond's goal, it was actually Montreal which had the chances closest to the fight, Pacioretty coming close to an equalizer twice. 

UPDATE: I added video review of the chances for these games - 
Period 1  
Period 2 
Period 3

Tracking Scoring Chances - Introduction

I've followed efforts to track scoring chances for the Leafs in previous seasons, but I haven't seen one for this 2013-14 season. So, I decided that I will try my hand at it. A couple of good primers are from In Lou We Trust and Copper and Blue.

To give you a very simple idea, to measure scoring chances is simply to count all of the shots directed at net from the area circled below (image from Copper and Blue). As that post described, blocked shots are not included, but missed shots are. Also, there's a decent chunk of impression in the chances, very soft shots from in the area might not be counted, and hard shots, one-timers, quick passing moves, etc. from outside the area might be. It all comes down to my judgement. I'll post times and descriptions (and maybe some gifs) of all chances I track, so anyone who's interested can check my work.

Why do this? Well, first off, it's fun to get a good picture of exactly how the flow of a game goes in terms of chances. It's also nice to have another tool to complement Corsi and Fenwick to shed light on what players are contributing to possession play and chances. Scoring chances tend to be similar to Corsi and Fenwick, and see when and how they differ, as well as when they don't, can teach us more about the utility and context of each measure. Also, we often see 'chances' data shown on broadcasts, but there is no official NHL definition or stat, this work gives us a little transparency in that respect.

So off I go, on a quest to track chances across the 82 games. I'll try and be regular with updates, but there will definitely be times in the year when things backup, feel free to comment or message if I'm slacking.