Week 1 Review - Poor starts and strong finishes lead to a 3-0 record

One of the big questions in analytics this year was whether the Leafs would regress after posting poor possession numbers and a high PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage), but making the playoffs anyway. 

So far in this young season, they've been just as enigmatic, posting one of the league's worst rates in Corsi and Fenwick close, and getting outchanced 5-on-5. Despite this, they've won all three games, and lead the league standings. You can't say anything from three games, of course, but it's funny to see things following a fmailiar pattern.

Game	Leafs Chances		Opp. Chances
	Overall	Even Str.	Overall	Even Str.
Oct. 1 @ MTL	22	10	24	18
Oct. 2 @ PHI	10	7	20	11
Oct. 5 v. OTT	27	21	19	18
Total	59	38	63	47

A net -4 overall, and -9 at even strength. The Leafs have been good on the powerplay, getting a lot of chances in both the Ottawa and Montreal games with the extra man (and one with a man less, Bozak's goal against the Habs. 

The most concerning aspect of the Leafs' early games has been poor starts, they've been outchanced by 11 at even strength in the first period of the three games, and actually managed to win the rest of the game after that, albeit narrowly. As I mentioned in the Ottawa game write-up, they've given up only 6 chances in the last ten minutes of games, and just 3 in the last five minutes, including in two games where the opponents were trailing and needing a goal.

Period	For	Against
1	12	23
2	12	12
3	12	12
4	2	0

Now for a quick overview of the players this week. I'll just look at even strength chances, and introduce some new measures; chances for/against/net per 60 minutes.

Even Strength	#	F	A	N	TOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Fraser	2	2	5	-3	0.7	5.0	12.4	-7.46
Phaneuf	3	14	18	-4	2.2	10.7	13.7	-3.05
Franson	3	12	19	-7	2.2	10.1	15.9	-5.87
McClement	3	5	6	-1	1.3	6.6	7.9	-1.32
Raymond	3	9	11	-2	1.5	11.3	13.9	-2.52
Ranger	3	16	16	0	2.1	15.8	15.8	0.00
Lupul	3	11	11	0	1.8	12.8	12.8	0.00
Van Riemsdyk	3	15	22	-7	1.8	14.5	21.3	-6.77
Orr	3	2	3	-1	0.8	6.7	10.0	-3.33
Reimer	2	21	30	-9	2.8	13.9	19.8	-5.95
Gunnarson	3	14	10	4	2.1	13.3	9.5	3.80
Ashton	2	2	2	0	0.4	11.7	11.7	0.00
Bodie	3	7	10	-3	0.9	18.1	25.9	-7.77
Kulemin	2	3	1	2	0.9	5.7	1.9	3.79
Bozak	3	17	23	-6	1.9	15.9	21.6	-5.63
Kadri	3	8	15	-7	1.5	10.6	19.8	-9.26
Gardiner	3	15	18	-3	1.9	16.6	19.9	-3.31
Bolland	3	11	5	6	1.7	14.0	6.3	7.62
Kessel	3	18	24	-6	2.2	16.4	21.8	-5.45
Bernier	2	17	17	0	3.1	10.8	10.8	0.00
Rielly	1	3	8	-5	0.7	9.9	26.5	-16.56
Abbott	1	2	6	-4	0.2	22.8	68.4	-45.57
Devane	1	2	0	2	0.3	17.5	0.0	17.48

No surprise that much of the team is in the negative, given the team's overall totals. I'll look at some players from a chance perspective, see how it fits with my eyes and other impressions. It's worth noting that 3 games is a useless sample size, there's a lot of noise in these stats. You can't really make any serious conclusions from the data; it's still fun to look at, though.

Good weeks:
Dave Bolland (2 goals, 1 assist | 14.0 chances for/60 (CF/60), 6.3 chances against/60 (CA/60))
The best player for the Leafs against Ottawa, and though the chances didn't reflect it, two goals in the Philadelphia win.

Nikolai Kulemin (2 assists | 5.7 CF/60, 1.9 CA/60)
One of only two players (along with Bolland) above 52% in Corsi. On for less than two even strength chances/60. Not creating offensively, but when you can shut down opponents like that, you don't need to worry about that nearly as much.

Carl Gunnarson (13.3 CF/60, 9.5 CA/60)
Not a flashy player, but effective. Gunnarson was one of only a few Leafs to post a positive chance split. 

Bad weeks:
Nazem Kadri (1 goal, 2 assists | 10.6 CF/60, 19.8 CA/60)
Bolland eating into Kadri's ice time isn't a surprise; the young centre hasn't been particularily good this week. Of all the forwards that you'd consider offensive threats (ie. not goons or checkers), only the injured Kulemin was on for fewer chances. 

Troy Bodie (2 assists | 18.1 CF/60, 25.9 CA/60)
Some bad luck for Bodie, I think, as he's looked very good to my eyes, and generated chances much better than I'd expect from what I figured would just be a plug-in checking line guy. The problem is, with just getting a few minutes a game, a couple of bad performances really dent his numbers, and he has been on for a lot of chances against, 10 in 22 minutes.

James Van Riemsdyk (2 goals | 14.5 CF/60, 21.3 CA/60)
One of the team's worst defensive records. When you consider his powerplay time, he's actually even, but just at even strength he's been the lowest of a line that has been soundly outchanced. Anecdotally, I've definitely seen some defensive sloppiness from him as well.


Also worth noting that on the defense, Fraser and Franson have poor numbers, while Ranger has the best other than Gunnarson. Not sure I agree with the Ranger call given how he's looked, but he's been good in terms of chances.

Game 3 - Oct 5th vs Ottawa - Leafs 5, Ottawa 4 (SO)

The Leafs' home opener was a wild affair, with the highest number of shots, Corsi events and scoring chances of the three games this year. The two sides traded a lot of chances, as giveaways and some less than stellar defensive play made for wide-open play. Toronto led five minutes in, but Ottawa answered with a pair, before Kadri tied the game on the powerplay. 

Toronto were the better team in the second, before a meltdown, Cowen scoring on a rebound and Spezza getting a fourth just 15 seconds later. This chased James Reimer from the net, and saw Jonathan Bernier make his home Leafs debut. He wouldn't allow another goal, as the Leafs outplayed the Sens substantially from that point on. Lupul pulled one back on a late powerplay, and JVR drew the teams level early in the third. While Ottawa had a couple of good third period chances, they had none in the last eight minutes, nor in the overtime. This has been a good sign in all three of the Leafs' games thus far this year; they've allowed just six chances in the last ten minutes of games, all while tied or defending leads.

The Leafs marginally outchanced the Sens in the first two periods, and were level on even strength, but that solid finish, and getting the only chances of overtime, saw them record their first game outchancing an opponent this year.

A summary of the scoring chances below the fold.

Game 1 - Oct 1st @ Montreal - Leafs 4, Montreal 3

An entertaining game to start the new season; the Leafs got the opening goal through James Van Riemsdyk, but trailed at the end of the first. They came back to take the lead in the second, Tyler Bozak scoring a short handed goal, then added an insurance marker in the third, one which they'd need after a late Lars Eller goal.

The game was marred by George Parros' injury, hitting his head on the ice during his second fight of the game with Colton Orr, a bizzare reprisal of a similar incident between the two from 2011, with Orr the one left struggling on the ice in that case.

Montreal came out of the gate flying, but the Leafs gradually got back even, partly thanks to a number of powerplays. That the Leafs survived the first period is a real testament to James Reimer, as they were outchanced 11-1 in the second half of the frame,  including three chances on a spectacular late shift by Eller, Moen and Parros. The Leafs managed to get things on track later in the game, however, allowing just 5 chances in the last 30 minutes. While Montreal pressed hard in the last couple of minutes after Eller's goal, I only saw one shot that made it through to Reimer, a fairly weak one from Subban at the boards. It almost went in anyway, with Reimer down and out, but I didn't count it. Other than that, the shots the Habs attempted were blocked or deflected by the Leafs' defenders.

Interestingly, despite there being a bit of a feeling after the Parros injury that the Canadiens had the energy sucked out of them, an argument furthered by Raymond's goal, it was actually Montreal which had the chances closest to the fight, Pacioretty coming close to an equalizer twice. 

UPDATE: I added video review of the chances for these games - 
Period 1  
Period 2 
Period 3