Game 6 - Leafs 6, Edmonton 5 (OT) - Leafs prevail in sloppy, entertaining game.

There was a lot of talk in last night's entertaining, come from behind win by the Leafs about how many chances there were both ways; looking at this game more closely actually showed that there weren't nearly as many chances as the previous two games on HNIC, the season opener and the Ottawa game. However, there were some egregious giveaways and some below-par goaltending, which meant a lot of scoring. 

Neither team ever led by more than one goal, and each period ended tied. The chances were similarily even; Edmonton's advantage in the second came from a late powerplay stretch that the Leafs did well to kill off, with the Oilers producing four chances in the two minutes. After Smyth put the Oilers ahead in the last ten minutes, Toronto dominated the chances, capping it with a late goal from Lupul and getting the only chances of overtime, with Bolland finishing the winner.

Of the 11 goals, I didn't count one as a scoring chance; Kadri's shot from a really sharp angle, which is a great play from him, but wasn't from a scoring chance position, and one Dubnyk probably should have had covered. Bernier allowed two goals that weren't great, misplaying a missed shot from Perron to allow Gordon an easy chance alone in front, and getting a piece, but not enough of Eberle's shot. In both cases, it seemed like he wasn't following the puck that well. It was a rough game for him, and the Leafs' attack had to bail him out to get the win. Fortunately for them, Dubnyk was equally sketchy in Edmonton's net.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Edmonton	Toronto	Edmonton
1	4	6	2	4
2	5	9	4	4
3	6	6	6	6
4	2	0	2	0
Total	17	21	14	14

Follow below the fold for details.




This was my list of scoring chances from the game. If you see any problems or omissions (here or anywhere else), please go ahead and leave a comment.

Club	St	P	Time	Note	Toronto						Edmonton
EDM	ES	1	18:13	Smyth wide from Arcobello	43	19	46	4	44	45	14	26	94	19	77	40
EDM	ES	1	16:17	Hall from Nugent-Hopkins	42	81	21	3	36	45	93	83	4	15	21	40
EDM	ES	1	14:39	GOAL! Smyth from Arcobello	11	28	37	4	44	45	14	26	94	2	5	40
TOR	PP	1	10:39	Kessel from Bozak	42	81	21	3	4	45	27	94	15	21	40	-
TOR	ES	1	07:26	Kessel wide from Bozak	42	81	21	3	36	45	93	83	4	2	5	40
TOR	ES	1	05:44	Broll post from Lupul	43	19	46	4	44	45	27	6	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	1	05:32	Joensuu drives	43	19	46	4	44	45	27	6	57	2	21	40
TOR	PP	1	04:34	GOAL! Van Riemsdyk deflects Franson shot	42	81	21	3	4	45	93	41	15	21	40	-
EDM	SH	1	01:50	GOAL! Nugent-Hopkins from Schultz	11	3	36	45	-	-	14	93	4	19	77	40
EDM	SH	1	00:57	Eberle from Petry	11	12	4	15	45	-	14	26	57	94	2	40
EDM	ES	2	18:58	GOAL! Gordon from Perron	63	81	12	4	44	45	27	4	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	2	16:10	Hemsky wide from Nugent-Hopkins	42	81	21	3	51	45	93	83	4	15	21	40
TOR	ES	2	15:39	Hemsky from Nugent-Hopkins	42	81	21	3	51	45	93	83	4	15	21	40
TOR	ES	2	15:13	Bozak from Van Riemsdyk	42	21	32	4	36	45	27	6	57	19	77	40
TOR	ES	2	14:40	GOAL! Lupul from Kadri	43	19	46	15	51	45	27	6	57	19	77	40
EDM	ES	2	12:08	Nugent-Hopkins from Petry	42	81	21	3	36	45	93	83	4	2	77	40
EDM	ES	2	11:48	Hemsky deflected Schultz shot	42	81	21	3	36	45	93	83	4	2	77	40
TOR	PP	2	10:33	Kadri wide from Lupul	43	19	12	15	51	45	93	83	2	5	40	-
EDM	SH	2	08:23	Perron from Schultz	11	21	3	36	45	-	93	83	4	57	19	40
TOR	ES	2	06:42	McClement wide from Van Riemsdyk	11	63	21	44	51	45	27	6	57	21	77	40
EDM	SH	2	01:56	Nugent-Hopkins from Schultz	11	42	3	36	45	-	93	83	57	94	19	40
EDM	SH	2	01:24	Perron shoots	11	42	3	36	45	-	93	83	57	94	19	40
EDM	SH	2	00:49	Eberle from rebound of Petry shot	63	21	4	15	45	-	14	26	4	2	77	40
EDM	SH	2	00:34	Belov from Petry	63	21	4	15	45	-	14	26	4	2	77	40
EDM	ES	3	16:07	Perron from loose puck	43	19	46	44	51	45	27	6	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	3	14:31	GOAL! Eberle from Arcobello	63	12	32	4	44	45	14	26	4	19	77	40
TOR	ES	3	13:39	Kadri from Van Riemsdyk	43	19	21	15	51	45	27	6	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	3	11:09	Smyth from Arcobello	63	12	32	4	44	45	14	26	94	19	77	40
TOR	ES	3	10:58	Bolland wide from Raymond	63	12	32	15	44	45	14	26	94	19	77	40
TOR	ES	3	10:05	GOAL! Van Riemsdyk from Bozak	42	81	21	44	51	45	93	6	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	3	08:33	GOAL! Smyth from Eberle	43	19	12	4	44	45	14	26	94	2	77	40
EDM	ES	3	07:23	Eberle deflects Belov shot	43	19	12	15	51	45	14	26	94	19	77	40
TOR	ES	3	05:16	Kadri wide from loose puck	11	43	19	15	51	45	14	26	94	2	5	40
TOR	ES	3	04:37	Raymond from Gardiner	43	19	12	15	51	45	27	6	57	15	21	40
EDM	ES	3	03:45	Arcobello from rebound of Ference shot	43	19	12	4	44	45	14	26	94	15	21	40
TOR	ES	3	00:31	GOAL! Lupul from Gardiner	42	81	19	21	3	51	93	83	4	2	77	40
TOR	ES	4	02:51	Franson from Raymond	63	12	4	44	45	-	93	57	19	77	40	-
TOR	ES	4	02:51	GOAL! Bolland from Franson	63	12	4	44	45	-	93	57	19	77	40	-

The Extra Skater game profile.

The Leafs were out shot by five, but out Corsi'd the Oilers both overall and at 5-on-5.  Edmonton's late second period powerplay pulled them ahead in the overall at one point, but Toronto came back strongly over the last few minutes, especially while chasing the tie in the last few minutes.

Some notes: 
1st - 16:17 - Nice save from Bernier on Hall in alone; Gunnarsson slipped while turning to let Hall through, Phaneuf is caught too far behind to make a difference.
1st - 14:39 - Smyth gets inside Franson and goes to the net, something he's been doing for a long time. Orr and Ashton got four zone starts all game, this one in the offensive zone takes less than 30 seconds to end up in their own net.
1st - 5:44 - A great pass by Lupul to find Broll, who was completely lost by the Oilers defense; three are behind the goal line, one at the hashmarks, presumably looking for the puck up the boards, and one behind Broll at the line. This quickly tuns, however; Rielly gets caught jumping in and Edmonton have a 2-on-1 break. Great backchechkking form both Rielly and Broll, though, who make up a lot of ground on Gordon to ensure Joensuu has to shoot.

2nd - 18:58 - A nightmare start to the period, and an odd one on Bernier. Perron's shot hits something in front and Bernier is completely lost. He does pretty well to get back and stop Perron's  chance at the side of the net, but slides off the post and can't recover enough to stop Gordon.
2nd - 16:10 - Oilers could have had a two-goal lead here; Phaneuf's clearing attempt gets knocked to Nugent-Hopkins coming up the middle. As a result, Phaneuf has totally lost Hemsky, who shifts in behind the defense. Good goaltending from Bernier, forcing Hemsky to pull it rto an angle where he ends up putting it wide.
2nd - 15:13 - Van Riemsdyk's passing continues to impress. He fights up Belov and throws a backhander right into the slot for Bozak.
2nd - 14:40 - Kadri's turn for some slick passing, a great backhand no-look pass to Lupul, who is beyond wide open, totally unmarked by Edmonton. At one point, all five Oilers are at or wide of their faceoff dot, leaving two-thirds of the ice in their own zone totally uncovered.
2nd - 12:08 - Some slick passing gets Nugent-Hopkins a free shot, as Kessel loses him and the other forwards on the big line get easily passed through.
2nd - 6:42 - Another excellent behind the back pass from JVR; Ference must feel he has things under control, but the big man flips it out into the slot for McClement despite the close coverage.

3rd - 16:07 - Gardiner and Rielly get a shift together, and end up Perron to shift right through the middle; his shot isn't that dangerous, but it isn't a great shift for them.
3rd - 14:31 - Franson gets his shot blocked, leaving his rookie team-mate alone on a 2-on-1. Rielly doesn't do much of anything to discourage the Oilers, and Bernier kind of fluffs the save, getting a glove to it, but not enough to keep it out.
3rd - 10:58 - Rielly headmans a rush after Smyth has a close chance. Raymond's fake shot into a nicely weighted pass for Bolland is a really nice one, shame that Bolland couldn't get something substantial on it.
3rd - 10:05 - Van Riemsdyk's impressive offensive game continues, getting Bozak's pass behind the net and putting it in on a wraparound. JVR catches Dubnyk off-guard, and van Riemsdyk's great hands in tight benefit him again.
3rd - 10:05 - A gorguous play. Arcobello, 1-on-3, circles, pulling Kadri with him, but also getting Rielly to go wide down the boards. This lets him throw a perfect backhand pass over to Eberle. Kadri realizes the danger, but is already stopped, while Eberle is at full speed. This leaves Franson defending a 2-on-1; he can't block the pass, and Smyth, who came past Raymond to be wide open, finishes.
3rd - 3:45 - He had some problems last night, but Bernier saves the Leafs' chances. They leave the backside wide open, with all five guys committed to one half of the ice. Ference's shot draws a juicy rebound, and Lupul, the closest man, is facing the wrong way to mark Arcobello. An incredible diving save by Bernier, though, preserves the one-goal deficit.
3rd - 0:31 - The Leafs only got one shot on net in the last couple of mintues, but they made it count. Kessel checks hall, makes sure he can only throw it as far as Gardiner up the boards. The defenseman sends it just ahead to Lupul, who sifted into an open spot in the zone for just a second, long enough to level the game.

4th - 2:51 - Franson creates a 3-on-1 with as little subtlety as possible, delivering a punch to Nugent-Hopkins to knock him down, springing the defenseman with Raymond and Bolland. Those two had been pretty quiet most of the game, but the trio easily passed around Belov, with Bolland right there to bury the rebound.

The scoring chance numbers for the Leaf players:

Player	F	A	D	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESD	EVTOI	PPF	PPA	PPD	SHF	SHA	SHD
Phaneuf	5	8	-3	24:58	3	4	-1	19:00	2	0	2	0	4	-4
Franson	6	11	-5	20:29	4	8	-4	13:36	2	0	2	0	3	-3
Mcclement	2	6	-4	14:39	2	1	1	10:02	0	0	0	0	5	-5
Raymond	5	7	-2	17:43	4	6	-2	13:55	1	0	1	0	1	-1
Ranger	6	4	2	21:59	5	1	4	16:27	1	0	1	0	3	-3
Lupul	7	6	1	15:31	6	6	0	13:40	1	0	1	0	0	0
Van Riemsdyk	9	7	2	22:54	7	4	3	17:56	2	0	2	0	3	-3
Orr	0	1	-1	05:54	0	1	-1	05:54	0	0	0	0	0	0
Leivo	2	2	0	10:44	2	2	0	10:28	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gunnarsson	2	7	-5	19:59	2	3	-1	16:50	0	0	0	0	4	-4
Ashton	0	1	-1	05:21	0	1	-1	05:21	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bozak	7	6	1	24:03	5	4	1	19:12	2	0	2	0	2	-2
Kadri	6	6	0	15:20	5	6	-1	12:23	1	0	1	0	0	0
Rielly	6	9	-3	15:53	6	9	-3	15:29	0	0	0	0	0	0
Broll	2	3	-1	06:53	2	3	-1	06:53	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gardiner	9	3	6	21:11	8	3	5	19:19	1	0	1	0	0	0
Bolland	4	5	-1	16:14	4	3	1	14:19	0	0	0	0	2	-2
Kessel	6	5	1	21:36	4	5	-1	18:47	2	0	2	0	0	0
Bernier	16	21	-5	61:43	13	14	-1	49:49	3	0	3	0	7	-7

The top line had a decent game, but the star of that unit was van Riemsdyk, who created some decnt chanes away from those guy, and was a sold +3. Lupul was excellent on the offensive end, but he and Kadri were on for a fair number of chances against as well; in the end it balances out. No forwards really struggled, but Raymond wasn't particularily good again, another negative chance differential. He was on for 6 against, while Bolland, who played similar time, was on for just 3.


Jake Gardiner finally had the strong game I've been waiting for, on ice for a team high 8 chances and just 3 against. Paul Ranger also had spectacular chance numbers, a +4, and on for just one against. Part of Ranger's success in this one is down to his usage; he had just one defensive zone start, compared to seven in the offensive end.

Franson and Rielly had another tough game; there seems to be a building opinion among media and twitter people that Rielly might be likely to stay. Based on what I've seen, this wouldn't be a great decision. His defensive play has not been good enough so far, and has he wears down over the course of a long pro season, it's unlikely to suddenly improve. Let him go down, dominate the WHL, lead the Canadian WJC team, and then gradually bring him into it next year.


The Oilers:

Player	F	A	D	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESD	EVTOI	PPF	PPA	PPD	SHF	SHA	SHD
Petry	8	4	4	25:45	5	3	2	20:50	3	0	3	0	1	-1
Hall	10	3	7	23:48	6	3	3	19:40	4	0	4	0	0	0
Smid	1	3	-2	17:59	1	2	-1	16:40	0	0	0	0	1	-1
Joensuu	2	7	-5	13:42	2	7	-5	13:27	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brown	0	0	0	05:31	0	0	0	05:31	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eberle	11	2	9	15:39	7	2	5	12:03	4	0	4	0	0	0
Schultz	5	7	-2	19:03	5	5	0	16:08	0	0	0	0	2	-2
Schultz	8	5	3	17:05	4	5	-1	13:11	4	0	4	0	0	0
Gazdic	0	0	0	05:38	0	0	0	05:38	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ference	6	8	-2	20:06	6	6	0	17:01	0	0	0	0	2	-2
Arcobello	10	2	8	16:07	7	2	5	13:14	3	0	3	0	0	0
Gordon	3	7	-4	15:26	3	6	-3	12:43	0	0	0	0	1	-1
Acton	0	1	-1	08:27	0	0	0	05:28	0	0	0	0	1	-1
Perron	7	9	-2	18:06	3	9	-6	14:12	4	0	4	0	0	0
Belov	10	7	3	20:35	7	7	0	16:39	3	0	3	0	0	0
Hemsky	7	4	3	22:42	4	3	1	18:14	3	0	3	0	1	-1
Nugent-Hopkins	8	8	0	25:20	4	6	-2	19:10	4	0	4	0	2	-2
Smyth	9	3	6	12:39	6	2	4	09:16	3	0	3	0	1	-1
Dubnyk	21	17	4	62:09	14	14	0	50:15	7	0	7	0	3	-3

Hall's +7 overall, and +3 at even strength, were quite good, and he was consistently dangerous, but the guys in this one were Arcobello and Eberle. Arcobello in particular is not a guy I knew much about, a Yale grad who's spent a few years in the AHL, but he was excellent last night, a very good complement to Eberle's speed and skill. The line featuring Joensuu and Perron were miserable last night, Perron on for a game-high nine chances against, including the ultimate winning goal. Smyth's two-goal game was also very good, on for just two chances against.

In a relatively high-chance game, Smid was a calming influence, with just three chances either way in his 16 minutes. Petry had a nice differnetial on the defense, while reading this chart was the first time I realized Edmonton dressed two men named Schultz.

Players with nice chance numbers:
Toronto - Jake Gardiner, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Ranger
Edmonton - Mark Arcobello, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth

Players with poor chance numbers:
Toronto - Cody Franson, Morgan Rielly
Edmonton - Jesse Joensuu, David Perron, Boyd Gordon