Game 8 - Carolina 3, Leafs 2 - Leafs struggle, but need weird fluke to lose

For a second straight game, the Leafs were soundly outplayed and outchanced, but this time they weren't able to get away with a point. Of course, this being the Leafs, it didn't come without something strange, Bernier allowing an extremely strange winning goal off an icing call.

The first period started well, Toronto winning the chance battle narrowly. Things stated to fall apart in the second, though, with Carolina pulling away to a big chance advantage, Toronto generating only two in the period. Of course, this wasn't reflected on the scoreboard, as the Leafs ended the period with a two-goal lead.

Toronto played a better third period, despite the score, as the teams traded early chances, allowing a goal on the powerplay that wasn't a chance, before Eric Staal put in a loose puck to tie the game, the only goal of Carolina's that came from a scoring chance.

The bizzare third goal by Carolina ended up in a result they probably deserved, but in an extremely strange way. Bernier took his attention off a long shot that seemed like it might go for icing, which then bounced off the boards and past him on the short side.

The two teams were even in the first and third period, but Toronto's miserable second (the period in which they scored both their goals), left that at a big deficit. The Leafs generated only one chance in the period other than the two goals.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Carolina	Toronto	Carolina
1	5	5	4	3
2	3	10	2	9
3	5	8	5	6
Total	13	23	11	18

Follow below the fold for details.

Game 7 - Leafs 4, Minnesota 1 - Leafs say "Corsi, who needs it?"

The Leafs played one of their worst game of the season thus far, but managed to win it nonetheless. Toronto generated just two chances in the first period, but both ended up in the Minnesota net, Bozak finishing a nice passing play and Smith putting one through Kuemper's five-hole after a nice pass from Rielly.

Toronto's second period was similarily rough, as they did not generate an even strength chance. However, they extended the lead after Raymond added a powerplay goal. With the lead, Toronto sat back and defended from further Minnesota attack.

The third period saw Minnesota generate seven chances, while Toronto again struggled, getting just two, but excellent play from Reimer kept the lead intact, and staked Toronto to another victory.

The three even strength chances Toronto generated were easily their lowest of the season. They tied their worst period in the first with just one, then "bettered" it in the second with no chances at even strength at all. Eleven against is one of their better totals, but after four straight games of at least being even in differential at even strength, this is a big beatdown.


A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Minnesota	Toronto	Minnesota
1	2	7	1	1
2	2	4	0	3
3	3	7	2	7
Total	7	18	3	11

Follow below the fold for details.

Week 2 Review

The Leafs continued their strong start; losing their first game of the year in a tight game against Colorado, before tkaing advantage of some good goaltending to shut-out Nashville and surviving a sloppy game against Edmonton.

Game	Overall		Even Strength
	Leafs	Opp	Leafs	Opp
Oct. 8 v. COL	19	17	16	16
Oct. 10 @ NSH	17	13	13	8
Oct. 12 v. EDM	17	21	14	14
Total	53	51	43	38

The Leafs win the week, a +2 overall and a +5 at ES, splitting the two closing games and winning the one game they were superior in, against Nashville.


The team's early pattern of slow starts has pretty much stopped; they were the better team against Colorado early, and a soporific start against Nashville didn't really benefit either side.

The players totals from the week are below:

Overall	#	F	A	N	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESN	ESTOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Raymond	3	12	21	-9	54:42	8	17	-9	42:21	11.3	24.1	-12.8
Franson	3	17	23	-6	63:15	12	17	-5	45:56	15.7	22.2	-6.5
Gardiner	3	19	14	5	59:00	15	12	3	50:42	17.8	14.2	3.6
Rielly	3	16	17	-1	51:31	15	17	-2	48:01	18.7	21.2	-2.5
Van Riemsdyk	3	24	15	9	67:43	18	10	8	51:38	20.9	11.6	9.3
Lupul	3	20	18	2	50:28	16	18	-2	44:56	21.4	24.0	-2.7
Bodie	1	1	0	1	05:03	1	0	1	05:03	11.9	0.0	11.9
Bozak	3	23	16	7	69:43	17	11	6	53:09	19.2	12.4	6.8
Kadri	3	21	12	9	44:45	17	12	5	37:59	26.9	19.0	7.9
Leivo	2	3	4	-1	19:46	3	4	-1	19:12	9.4	12.5	-3.1
Phaneuf	3	22	17	5	73:36	16	13	3	55:25	17.3	14.1	3.2
McClement	2	4	10	-6	29:43	4	2	2	20:22	11.8	5.9	5.9
Orr	3	4	4	0	23:26	4	4	0	22:25	10.7	10.7	0.0
Smith	1	1	1	0	05:16	1	1	0	05:16	11.4	11.4	0.0
Broll	2	6	6	0	16:12	6	6	0	16:12	22.2	22.2	0.0
Devane	1	1	2	-1	04:51	1	2	-1	04:51	12.4	24.7	-12.4
Bolland	3	8	15	-7	47:55	8	12	-4	41:09	11.7	17.5	-5.8
Kessel	3	24	12	12	62:40	18	12	6	53:28	20.2	13.5	6.7
Ranger	3	19	13	6	59:23	15	7	8	44:52	20.1	9.4	10.7
Bernier	3	51	51	0	181:07	41	38	3	146:13	16.8	15.6	1.2
Ashton	3	7	2	5	21:55	7	2	5	21:05	19.9	5.7	14.2
Gunnarsson	3	13	19	-6	59:04	13	11	2	51:05	15.3	12.9	2.3

A prettier week, with most of the team above even in the differential.
 
Good weeks:
Paul Ranger (20.1 CF/60, 9.4 CA/60)
Ranger hasn't been particularly impressive from my eyes, but his Corsi numbers and chance numbers look quite good. He hasn't been on for a lot against, and has been with productive lines. He benifits from the fact that he and Gardiner have tended to get some of the weaker competition, but he's still done well in that time.


James Van Riemsdyk (3 goals, 1 assist | 20.9 CF/60, 11.6 CA/60)
JVR had an excellent week, showing some great visiion and hands. He is looking like having the potential for  a real breakout season. One major positive this week is his defneisve play; he was able to get his chances against under control, while his chances for went up marginally. Playing at this level for a prolonged stretch will make him a very dangerous player.

Nazem Kadri (1 goal, 2 assists | 26.9 CF/60, 19.0 CA/60)
Kadri is still on for a lot of chances, a virtually identical number to last week, but substantially improved on the offensive end, with a team best mark.

Bad weeks:
Mayson Raymond (2 assists | 11.3 CF/60, 24.1 CA/60)
After a solid start, Raymond felt fairly invisible this week. In particular, his defensive performance wasn't great. Part of this is down to his usage; he's got one of the lowest percentages of offensive zone starts of the regular forwards, so he's somewhat predisposed to being on for more chances against.

Cody Franson (2 assists | 15.7 CF/60, 22.2 CA/60)
A very tough week for Franson, though again I suspect it's down to usage; having a rookie partner and getting a lot of D-zone starts isn't conducive to good results. One of the Leafs' problems early in the year seems to be that Franson is being asked a little too much of. He did well with Fraser on a third D-pairing last season, the step-up seems to have caught him out somewhat this season.

Dave Bolland (1 goal | 11.7 CF/60, 17.5 CA/60)
Similar to Raymond, in that he cooled down after a strong first week, though not to the same degree. Didn't produce many chances over the week, though he did manage the game winner against Edmonton.

Overall	#	F	A	N	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESN	ESTOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Reimer	2	36	37	-1	90:44	21	30	-9	67:30	18.7	26.7	-8.0
Raymond	6	29	36	-7	102:18	17	28	-11	78:27	13.0	21.4	-8.4
Franson	6	39	47	-8	134:45	24	36	-12	98:01	14.7	22.0	-7.3
Gardiner	6	43	34	9	113:22	30	30	0	96:50	18.6	18.6	0.0
Rielly	4	19	25	-6	69:38	18	25	-7	65:43	16.4	22.8	-6.4
Abbott	1	2	6	-4	05:16	2	6	-4	05:16	22.8	68.4	-45.6
Fraser	2	2	10	-8	24:07	2	5	-3	17:44	6.8	16.9	-10.2
Van Riemsdyk	6	48	41	7	129:46	33	32	1	95:38	20.7	20.1	0.6
Lupul	6	42	31	11	102:01	27	29	-2	87:45	18.5	19.8	-1.4
Bodie	4	8	10	-2	28:13	8	10	-2	27:40	17.3	21.7	-4.3
Bozak	6	49	44	5	133:43	34	34	0	99:40	20.5	20.5	0.0
Kadri	6	38	29	9	90:07	25	27	-2	74:38	20.1	21.7	-1.6
Leivo	2	3	4	-1	19:46	3	4	-1	19:12	9.4	12.5	-3.1
Phaneuf	6	50	42	8	152:14	30	31	-1	107:05	16.8	17.4	-0.6
McClement	5	11	26	-15	75:04	9	8	1	50:50	10.6	9.4	1.2
Orr	6	6	7	-1	41:28	6	7	-1	40:27	8.9	10.4	-1.5
Smith	1	1	1	0	05:16	1	1	0	05:16	11.4	11.4	0.0
Broll	2	6	6	0	16:12	6	6	0	16:12	22.2	22.2	0.0
Devane	2	3	2	1	11:43	3	2	1	11:43	15.4	10.2	5.1
Bolland	6	21	22	-1	95:11	19	17	2	82:17	13.9	12.4	1.5
Kessel	6	53	37	16	128:40	36	36	0	105:57	20.4	20.4	0.0
Kulemin	2	3	6	-3	31:40	3	1	2	22:43	7.9	2.6	5.3
Ranger	6	42	33	9	120:02	31	23	8	94:36	19.7	14.6	5.1
Bernier	5	74	77	-3	275:11	58	55	3	220:15	15.8	15.0	0.8
Ashton	5	9	4	5	32:12	9	4	5	31:19	17.2	7.7	9.6
Gunnarsson	6	28	38	-10	122:15	27	21	6	100:51	16.1	12.5	3.6

Game 6 - Leafs 6, Edmonton 5 (OT) - Leafs prevail in sloppy, entertaining game.

There was a lot of talk in last night's entertaining, come from behind win by the Leafs about how many chances there were both ways; looking at this game more closely actually showed that there weren't nearly as many chances as the previous two games on HNIC, the season opener and the Ottawa game. However, there were some egregious giveaways and some below-par goaltending, which meant a lot of scoring. 

Neither team ever led by more than one goal, and each period ended tied. The chances were similarily even; Edmonton's advantage in the second came from a late powerplay stretch that the Leafs did well to kill off, with the Oilers producing four chances in the two minutes. After Smyth put the Oilers ahead in the last ten minutes, Toronto dominated the chances, capping it with a late goal from Lupul and getting the only chances of overtime, with Bolland finishing the winner.

Of the 11 goals, I didn't count one as a scoring chance; Kadri's shot from a really sharp angle, which is a great play from him, but wasn't from a scoring chance position, and one Dubnyk probably should have had covered. Bernier allowed two goals that weren't great, misplaying a missed shot from Perron to allow Gordon an easy chance alone in front, and getting a piece, but not enough of Eberle's shot. In both cases, it seemed like he wasn't following the puck that well. It was a rough game for him, and the Leafs' attack had to bail him out to get the win. Fortunately for them, Dubnyk was equally sketchy in Edmonton's net.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Edmonton	Toronto	Edmonton
1	4	6	2	4
2	5	9	4	4
3	6	6	6	6
4	2	0	2	0
Total	17	21	14	14

Follow below the fold for details.

Game 5 - Leafs 4, Nashville 0 - Bernier excellent as Leafs outchance Nashville

A very slow first period, with just three even strength chances, made it seem like it could be a long, dull night in Nashville. Fortunately, things livened up in the second. The Leafs dominated the play while the game was 5-on-5 in the second, outchancing the Predators 6-1. They opened the scoring thanks to a great pass from Van Riemsdyk to Kessel, and got another from JVR in the last minute.

Nashville woke up in the third, finally starting to generate some chances, but the Leafs were able to match them, and when Fisher took a five-minute penalty for boarding against Franson, who was pretty seriously cut against a stanchion, Nashville's chance lost all momentum. The Leafs added two on the ensuing powerplay, and that was it. Bernier held off the Predators to earn his first shutout as a Leaf.

I saw on the Preds broacast that they had the chances at 17-10; agreeing with me, but with one big problem: that graphic was at the 17 minute mark of the third, when I had the chances 11-9 for Toronto. I feel like I'm fairly generous with these summaries, but apparently not.

A summary of the scoring chances:
 

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Nashville	Toronto	Nashville
1	4	1	2	1
2	6	6	6	1
3	7	6	5	6
Total	17	13	13	8

Follow below the fold for details.

Game 4 - Colorado 2, Leafs 1 - Leafs take first loss after struggling in the second

The Leafs took their first loss of the year to a talented young Colorado team, which, like the Leafs, came in undefeated. The opening period was open, and filled with chances, entertaining to watch, but didn't actually feature any goals. The second period was the worst the Leafs have had in the season for chances, generating only two, both on the shift that saw Lupul open the scoring. 

Colorado was all over the Leafs for a long stretch, outchancing them 10-4 over the middle half hour of the game. They were rewarded for their dominance early in the third, Parenteau and McGinn taking advantage of a poor shift from Ranger and Gardiner to break in on a 2-on-1. After falling behind, the Leafs finally showed some pressure of their own, but despite a solid powerplay and a few other good chances, they couldn't beat Varlamov for an equalizer.

It may be the first loss of the year, but it's hard to despair too much, as the game was fairly even. Colorado's first goal was a poor one, not from the scoring chance area, the only real blemish on what was otherwise a good game from Bernier.
A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Colorado	Toronto	Colorado
1	9	7	9	7
2	2	7	2	6
3	7	4	4	4
Total	18	18	15	17

Follow below the fold for details.

Week 1 Review - Poor starts and strong finishes lead to a 3-0 record

One of the big questions in analytics this year was whether the Leafs would regress after posting poor possession numbers and a high PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage), but making the playoffs anyway. 

So far in this young season, they've been just as enigmatic, posting one of the league's worst rates in Corsi and Fenwick close, and getting outchanced 5-on-5. Despite this, they've won all three games, and lead the league standings. You can't say anything from three games, of course, but it's funny to see things following a fmailiar pattern.

Game	Leafs Chances		Opp. Chances
	Overall	Even Str.	Overall	Even Str.
Oct. 1 @ MTL	22	10	24	18
Oct. 2 @ PHI	10	7	20	11
Oct. 5 v. OTT	27	21	19	18
Total	59	38	63	47

A net -4 overall, and -9 at even strength. The Leafs have been good on the powerplay, getting a lot of chances in both the Ottawa and Montreal games with the extra man (and one with a man less, Bozak's goal against the Habs. 

The most concerning aspect of the Leafs' early games has been poor starts, they've been outchanced by 11 at even strength in the first period of the three games, and actually managed to win the rest of the game after that, albeit narrowly. As I mentioned in the Ottawa game write-up, they've given up only 6 chances in the last ten minutes of games, and just 3 in the last five minutes, including in two games where the opponents were trailing and needing a goal.

Period	For	Against
1	12	23
2	12	12
3	12	12
4	2	0

Now for a quick overview of the players this week. I'll just look at even strength chances, and introduce some new measures; chances for/against/net per 60 minutes.

Even Strength	#	F	A	N	TOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Fraser	2	2	5	-3	0.7	5.0	12.4	-7.46
Phaneuf	3	14	18	-4	2.2	10.7	13.7	-3.05
Franson	3	12	19	-7	2.2	10.1	15.9	-5.87
McClement	3	5	6	-1	1.3	6.6	7.9	-1.32
Raymond	3	9	11	-2	1.5	11.3	13.9	-2.52
Ranger	3	16	16	0	2.1	15.8	15.8	0.00
Lupul	3	11	11	0	1.8	12.8	12.8	0.00
Van Riemsdyk	3	15	22	-7	1.8	14.5	21.3	-6.77
Orr	3	2	3	-1	0.8	6.7	10.0	-3.33
Reimer	2	21	30	-9	2.8	13.9	19.8	-5.95
Gunnarson	3	14	10	4	2.1	13.3	9.5	3.80
Ashton	2	2	2	0	0.4	11.7	11.7	0.00
Bodie	3	7	10	-3	0.9	18.1	25.9	-7.77
Kulemin	2	3	1	2	0.9	5.7	1.9	3.79
Bozak	3	17	23	-6	1.9	15.9	21.6	-5.63
Kadri	3	8	15	-7	1.5	10.6	19.8	-9.26
Gardiner	3	15	18	-3	1.9	16.6	19.9	-3.31
Bolland	3	11	5	6	1.7	14.0	6.3	7.62
Kessel	3	18	24	-6	2.2	16.4	21.8	-5.45
Bernier	2	17	17	0	3.1	10.8	10.8	0.00
Rielly	1	3	8	-5	0.7	9.9	26.5	-16.56
Abbott	1	2	6	-4	0.2	22.8	68.4	-45.57
Devane	1	2	0	2	0.3	17.5	0.0	17.48

No surprise that much of the team is in the negative, given the team's overall totals. I'll look at some players from a chance perspective, see how it fits with my eyes and other impressions. It's worth noting that 3 games is a useless sample size, there's a lot of noise in these stats. You can't really make any serious conclusions from the data; it's still fun to look at, though.

Good weeks:
Dave Bolland (2 goals, 1 assist | 14.0 chances for/60 (CF/60), 6.3 chances against/60 (CA/60))
The best player for the Leafs against Ottawa, and though the chances didn't reflect it, two goals in the Philadelphia win.

Nikolai Kulemin (2 assists | 5.7 CF/60, 1.9 CA/60)
One of only two players (along with Bolland) above 52% in Corsi. On for less than two even strength chances/60. Not creating offensively, but when you can shut down opponents like that, you don't need to worry about that nearly as much.

Carl Gunnarson (13.3 CF/60, 9.5 CA/60)
Not a flashy player, but effective. Gunnarson was one of only a few Leafs to post a positive chance split. 

Bad weeks:
Nazem Kadri (1 goal, 2 assists | 10.6 CF/60, 19.8 CA/60)
Bolland eating into Kadri's ice time isn't a surprise; the young centre hasn't been particularily good this week. Of all the forwards that you'd consider offensive threats (ie. not goons or checkers), only the injured Kulemin was on for fewer chances. 

Troy Bodie (2 assists | 18.1 CF/60, 25.9 CA/60)
Some bad luck for Bodie, I think, as he's looked very good to my eyes, and generated chances much better than I'd expect from what I figured would just be a plug-in checking line guy. The problem is, with just getting a few minutes a game, a couple of bad performances really dent his numbers, and he has been on for a lot of chances against, 10 in 22 minutes.

James Van Riemsdyk (2 goals | 14.5 CF/60, 21.3 CA/60)
One of the team's worst defensive records. When you consider his powerplay time, he's actually even, but just at even strength he's been the lowest of a line that has been soundly outchanced. Anecdotally, I've definitely seen some defensive sloppiness from him as well.


Also worth noting that on the defense, Fraser and Franson have poor numbers, while Ranger has the best other than Gunnarson. Not sure I agree with the Ranger call given how he's looked, but he's been good in terms of chances.