Week 2 Review

The Leafs continued their strong start; losing their first game of the year in a tight game against Colorado, before tkaing advantage of some good goaltending to shut-out Nashville and surviving a sloppy game against Edmonton.

Game	Overall		Even Strength
	Leafs	Opp	Leafs	Opp
Oct. 8 v. COL	19	17	16	16
Oct. 10 @ NSH	17	13	13	8
Oct. 12 v. EDM	17	21	14	14
Total	53	51	43	38

The Leafs win the week, a +2 overall and a +5 at ES, splitting the two closing games and winning the one game they were superior in, against Nashville.


The team's early pattern of slow starts has pretty much stopped; they were the better team against Colorado early, and a soporific start against Nashville didn't really benefit either side.

The players totals from the week are below:

Overall	#	F	A	N	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESN	ESTOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Raymond	3	12	21	-9	54:42	8	17	-9	42:21	11.3	24.1	-12.8
Franson	3	17	23	-6	63:15	12	17	-5	45:56	15.7	22.2	-6.5
Gardiner	3	19	14	5	59:00	15	12	3	50:42	17.8	14.2	3.6
Rielly	3	16	17	-1	51:31	15	17	-2	48:01	18.7	21.2	-2.5
Van Riemsdyk	3	24	15	9	67:43	18	10	8	51:38	20.9	11.6	9.3
Lupul	3	20	18	2	50:28	16	18	-2	44:56	21.4	24.0	-2.7
Bodie	1	1	0	1	05:03	1	0	1	05:03	11.9	0.0	11.9
Bozak	3	23	16	7	69:43	17	11	6	53:09	19.2	12.4	6.8
Kadri	3	21	12	9	44:45	17	12	5	37:59	26.9	19.0	7.9
Leivo	2	3	4	-1	19:46	3	4	-1	19:12	9.4	12.5	-3.1
Phaneuf	3	22	17	5	73:36	16	13	3	55:25	17.3	14.1	3.2
McClement	2	4	10	-6	29:43	4	2	2	20:22	11.8	5.9	5.9
Orr	3	4	4	0	23:26	4	4	0	22:25	10.7	10.7	0.0
Smith	1	1	1	0	05:16	1	1	0	05:16	11.4	11.4	0.0
Broll	2	6	6	0	16:12	6	6	0	16:12	22.2	22.2	0.0
Devane	1	1	2	-1	04:51	1	2	-1	04:51	12.4	24.7	-12.4
Bolland	3	8	15	-7	47:55	8	12	-4	41:09	11.7	17.5	-5.8
Kessel	3	24	12	12	62:40	18	12	6	53:28	20.2	13.5	6.7
Ranger	3	19	13	6	59:23	15	7	8	44:52	20.1	9.4	10.7
Bernier	3	51	51	0	181:07	41	38	3	146:13	16.8	15.6	1.2
Ashton	3	7	2	5	21:55	7	2	5	21:05	19.9	5.7	14.2
Gunnarsson	3	13	19	-6	59:04	13	11	2	51:05	15.3	12.9	2.3

A prettier week, with most of the team above even in the differential.
 
Good weeks:
Paul Ranger (20.1 CF/60, 9.4 CA/60)
Ranger hasn't been particularly impressive from my eyes, but his Corsi numbers and chance numbers look quite good. He hasn't been on for a lot against, and has been with productive lines. He benifits from the fact that he and Gardiner have tended to get some of the weaker competition, but he's still done well in that time.


James Van Riemsdyk (3 goals, 1 assist | 20.9 CF/60, 11.6 CA/60)
JVR had an excellent week, showing some great visiion and hands. He is looking like having the potential for  a real breakout season. One major positive this week is his defneisve play; he was able to get his chances against under control, while his chances for went up marginally. Playing at this level for a prolonged stretch will make him a very dangerous player.

Nazem Kadri (1 goal, 2 assists | 26.9 CF/60, 19.0 CA/60)
Kadri is still on for a lot of chances, a virtually identical number to last week, but substantially improved on the offensive end, with a team best mark.

Bad weeks:
Mayson Raymond (2 assists | 11.3 CF/60, 24.1 CA/60)
After a solid start, Raymond felt fairly invisible this week. In particular, his defensive performance wasn't great. Part of this is down to his usage; he's got one of the lowest percentages of offensive zone starts of the regular forwards, so he's somewhat predisposed to being on for more chances against.

Cody Franson (2 assists | 15.7 CF/60, 22.2 CA/60)
A very tough week for Franson, though again I suspect it's down to usage; having a rookie partner and getting a lot of D-zone starts isn't conducive to good results. One of the Leafs' problems early in the year seems to be that Franson is being asked a little too much of. He did well with Fraser on a third D-pairing last season, the step-up seems to have caught him out somewhat this season.

Dave Bolland (1 goal | 11.7 CF/60, 17.5 CA/60)
Similar to Raymond, in that he cooled down after a strong first week, though not to the same degree. Didn't produce many chances over the week, though he did manage the game winner against Edmonton.

Overall	#	F	A	N	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESN	ESTOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Reimer	2	36	37	-1	90:44	21	30	-9	67:30	18.7	26.7	-8.0
Raymond	6	29	36	-7	102:18	17	28	-11	78:27	13.0	21.4	-8.4
Franson	6	39	47	-8	134:45	24	36	-12	98:01	14.7	22.0	-7.3
Gardiner	6	43	34	9	113:22	30	30	0	96:50	18.6	18.6	0.0
Rielly	4	19	25	-6	69:38	18	25	-7	65:43	16.4	22.8	-6.4
Abbott	1	2	6	-4	05:16	2	6	-4	05:16	22.8	68.4	-45.6
Fraser	2	2	10	-8	24:07	2	5	-3	17:44	6.8	16.9	-10.2
Van Riemsdyk	6	48	41	7	129:46	33	32	1	95:38	20.7	20.1	0.6
Lupul	6	42	31	11	102:01	27	29	-2	87:45	18.5	19.8	-1.4
Bodie	4	8	10	-2	28:13	8	10	-2	27:40	17.3	21.7	-4.3
Bozak	6	49	44	5	133:43	34	34	0	99:40	20.5	20.5	0.0
Kadri	6	38	29	9	90:07	25	27	-2	74:38	20.1	21.7	-1.6
Leivo	2	3	4	-1	19:46	3	4	-1	19:12	9.4	12.5	-3.1
Phaneuf	6	50	42	8	152:14	30	31	-1	107:05	16.8	17.4	-0.6
McClement	5	11	26	-15	75:04	9	8	1	50:50	10.6	9.4	1.2
Orr	6	6	7	-1	41:28	6	7	-1	40:27	8.9	10.4	-1.5
Smith	1	1	1	0	05:16	1	1	0	05:16	11.4	11.4	0.0
Broll	2	6	6	0	16:12	6	6	0	16:12	22.2	22.2	0.0
Devane	2	3	2	1	11:43	3	2	1	11:43	15.4	10.2	5.1
Bolland	6	21	22	-1	95:11	19	17	2	82:17	13.9	12.4	1.5
Kessel	6	53	37	16	128:40	36	36	0	105:57	20.4	20.4	0.0
Kulemin	2	3	6	-3	31:40	3	1	2	22:43	7.9	2.6	5.3
Ranger	6	42	33	9	120:02	31	23	8	94:36	19.7	14.6	5.1
Bernier	5	74	77	-3	275:11	58	55	3	220:15	15.8	15.0	0.8
Ashton	5	9	4	5	32:12	9	4	5	31:19	17.2	7.7	9.6
Gunnarsson	6	28	38	-10	122:15	27	21	6	100:51	16.1	12.5	3.6

Week 1 Review - Poor starts and strong finishes lead to a 3-0 record

One of the big questions in analytics this year was whether the Leafs would regress after posting poor possession numbers and a high PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage), but making the playoffs anyway. 

So far in this young season, they've been just as enigmatic, posting one of the league's worst rates in Corsi and Fenwick close, and getting outchanced 5-on-5. Despite this, they've won all three games, and lead the league standings. You can't say anything from three games, of course, but it's funny to see things following a fmailiar pattern.

Game	Leafs Chances		Opp. Chances
	Overall	Even Str.	Overall	Even Str.
Oct. 1 @ MTL	22	10	24	18
Oct. 2 @ PHI	10	7	20	11
Oct. 5 v. OTT	27	21	19	18
Total	59	38	63	47

A net -4 overall, and -9 at even strength. The Leafs have been good on the powerplay, getting a lot of chances in both the Ottawa and Montreal games with the extra man (and one with a man less, Bozak's goal against the Habs. 

The most concerning aspect of the Leafs' early games has been poor starts, they've been outchanced by 11 at even strength in the first period of the three games, and actually managed to win the rest of the game after that, albeit narrowly. As I mentioned in the Ottawa game write-up, they've given up only 6 chances in the last ten minutes of games, and just 3 in the last five minutes, including in two games where the opponents were trailing and needing a goal.

Period	For	Against
1	12	23
2	12	12
3	12	12
4	2	0

Now for a quick overview of the players this week. I'll just look at even strength chances, and introduce some new measures; chances for/against/net per 60 minutes.

Even Strength	#	F	A	N	TOI	F/60	A/60	N/60
Fraser	2	2	5	-3	0.7	5.0	12.4	-7.46
Phaneuf	3	14	18	-4	2.2	10.7	13.7	-3.05
Franson	3	12	19	-7	2.2	10.1	15.9	-5.87
McClement	3	5	6	-1	1.3	6.6	7.9	-1.32
Raymond	3	9	11	-2	1.5	11.3	13.9	-2.52
Ranger	3	16	16	0	2.1	15.8	15.8	0.00
Lupul	3	11	11	0	1.8	12.8	12.8	0.00
Van Riemsdyk	3	15	22	-7	1.8	14.5	21.3	-6.77
Orr	3	2	3	-1	0.8	6.7	10.0	-3.33
Reimer	2	21	30	-9	2.8	13.9	19.8	-5.95
Gunnarson	3	14	10	4	2.1	13.3	9.5	3.80
Ashton	2	2	2	0	0.4	11.7	11.7	0.00
Bodie	3	7	10	-3	0.9	18.1	25.9	-7.77
Kulemin	2	3	1	2	0.9	5.7	1.9	3.79
Bozak	3	17	23	-6	1.9	15.9	21.6	-5.63
Kadri	3	8	15	-7	1.5	10.6	19.8	-9.26
Gardiner	3	15	18	-3	1.9	16.6	19.9	-3.31
Bolland	3	11	5	6	1.7	14.0	6.3	7.62
Kessel	3	18	24	-6	2.2	16.4	21.8	-5.45
Bernier	2	17	17	0	3.1	10.8	10.8	0.00
Rielly	1	3	8	-5	0.7	9.9	26.5	-16.56
Abbott	1	2	6	-4	0.2	22.8	68.4	-45.57
Devane	1	2	0	2	0.3	17.5	0.0	17.48

No surprise that much of the team is in the negative, given the team's overall totals. I'll look at some players from a chance perspective, see how it fits with my eyes and other impressions. It's worth noting that 3 games is a useless sample size, there's a lot of noise in these stats. You can't really make any serious conclusions from the data; it's still fun to look at, though.

Good weeks:
Dave Bolland (2 goals, 1 assist | 14.0 chances for/60 (CF/60), 6.3 chances against/60 (CA/60))
The best player for the Leafs against Ottawa, and though the chances didn't reflect it, two goals in the Philadelphia win.

Nikolai Kulemin (2 assists | 5.7 CF/60, 1.9 CA/60)
One of only two players (along with Bolland) above 52% in Corsi. On for less than two even strength chances/60. Not creating offensively, but when you can shut down opponents like that, you don't need to worry about that nearly as much.

Carl Gunnarson (13.3 CF/60, 9.5 CA/60)
Not a flashy player, but effective. Gunnarson was one of only a few Leafs to post a positive chance split. 

Bad weeks:
Nazem Kadri (1 goal, 2 assists | 10.6 CF/60, 19.8 CA/60)
Bolland eating into Kadri's ice time isn't a surprise; the young centre hasn't been particularily good this week. Of all the forwards that you'd consider offensive threats (ie. not goons or checkers), only the injured Kulemin was on for fewer chances. 

Troy Bodie (2 assists | 18.1 CF/60, 25.9 CA/60)
Some bad luck for Bodie, I think, as he's looked very good to my eyes, and generated chances much better than I'd expect from what I figured would just be a plug-in checking line guy. The problem is, with just getting a few minutes a game, a couple of bad performances really dent his numbers, and he has been on for a lot of chances against, 10 in 22 minutes.

James Van Riemsdyk (2 goals | 14.5 CF/60, 21.3 CA/60)
One of the team's worst defensive records. When you consider his powerplay time, he's actually even, but just at even strength he's been the lowest of a line that has been soundly outchanced. Anecdotally, I've definitely seen some defensive sloppiness from him as well.


Also worth noting that on the defense, Fraser and Franson have poor numbers, while Ranger has the best other than Gunnarson. Not sure I agree with the Ranger call given how he's looked, but he's been good in terms of chances.