3/4 point summary - Team, period and score related data

Here is a summary of the Leafs scoring chance data I've been tracking so far this season. Data related to players is in another post. 

First, the team totals:

	Overall				ES				PP				SH
	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
First Half	655	815	-160	44.6%	505	630	-125	44.5%	141	17	124	89.2%	8	167	-159	4.6%
Q3	338	408	-70	45.3%	270	318	-48	45.9%	55	20	35	73.3%	10	66	-56	13.2%
Total	993	1223	-230	44.8%	775	948	-173	45.0%	196	37	159	84.1%	18	233	-215	7.2%

The Leafs have seen a marginal increase in their chance percentage over the last 20 games, but still remain around the 45% mark. They've been much better at generating chances shorthanded, but have also been more permissive on the powerplay themselves.

From extraskater.com, here are the Corsi data for the Leafs in the same situations:

	Overall				ES				PP				SH
	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
First Half	2121	2744	-623	43.6%	1596	2125	-529	42.9%	347	45	302	88.5%	25	409	-384	5.8%
Q3	1125	1380	-255	44.9%	1005	1223	-218	45.1%	179	42	137	81.0%	15	215	-200	6.5%
Total	3246	4124	-878	44.0%	2601	3348	-747	43.7%	526	87	439	85.8%	40	624	-584	6.0%

The increase in chance percentage is matched by an increase in Corsi percentages.

Game	Opp	Overall				ES				PP				SH
		ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
42	DET	11	22	-11	33.3%	9	16	-7	36.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
43	NYR	19	27	-8	41.3%	18	21	-3	46.2%	0	0	0	-	0	6	-6	0.0%
44	NYI	15	11	4	57.7%	11	9	2	55.0%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
45	CAR	13	23	-10	36.1%	12	13	-1	48.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%	1	9	-8	10.0%
46	WAS	23	17	6	57.5%	13	16	-3	44.8%	8	0	8	100.0%	2	1	1	66.7%
47	NJD	20	22	-2	47.6%	15	17	-2	46.9%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
48	BOS	13	22	-9	37.1%	7	17	-10	29.2%	5	2	3	71.4%	1	3	-2	25.0%
49	BUF	15	13	2	53.6%	12	11	1	52.2%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
50	MTL	16	20	-4	44.4%	13	16	-3	44.8%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
51	PHX	12	24	-12	33.3%	8	13	-5	38.1%	4	5	-1	44.4%	0	6	-6	0.0%
52	COL	17	18	-1	48.6%	13	16	-3	44.8%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
53	DAL	8	22	-14	26.7%	8	19	-11	29.6%	0	2	-2	0.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
54	WPG	15	19	-4	44.1%	12	15	-3	44.4%	3	1	2	75.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
55	TBL	17	23	-6	42.5%	13	13	0	50.0%	2	3	-1	40.0%	2	7	-5	22.2%
56	FLA	17	18	-1	48.6%	12	14	-2	46.2%	4	1	3	80.0%	1	3	-2	25.0%
57	OTT	16	13	3	55.2%	13	12	1	52.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	1	0	50.0%
58	FLA	15	19	-4	44.1%	14	19	-5	42.4%	0	0	0	-	1	0	1	100.0%
59	TBL	31	20	11	60.8%	28	20	8	58.3%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	0	0	-
60	VAN	16	12	4	57.1%	14	7	7	66.7%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
61	NYI	14	25	-11	35.9%	12	19	-7	38.7%	1	2	-1	33.3%	0	0	0	-
62	MTL	15	18	-3	45.5%	13	15	-2	46.4%	1	1	0	50.0%	1	2	-1	33.3%

Here is ES chance data for the Leafs by period:

	First Half			Q3			Total
Period	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
1	156	200	43.8%	80	110	42.1%	236	310	43.2%
2	164	204	44.6%	86	95	47.5%	250	299	45.5%
3	150	198	43.1%	95	95	50.0%	245	293	45.5%
4	25	13	65.8%	7	14	33.3%	32	27	54.2%

Despite the increase overall, the Leafs have been worse in first periods than in the first half; the uptick has come in the second, and especially in the third, where Toronto has been much more effective.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
Close	295	372	44.2%	155	188	45.2%	450	560	44.6%

The uptick for the Leafs in chances has also come in close situations, though 45% is still very low in these situations.


I looked again at the Leafs in the third period, to compare how they were at defending and chasing leads.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
3rd Chasing	47	46	50.5%	28	18	60.9%	75	64	54.0%
Down 1	31	27	53.4%	20	16	55.6%	51	43	54.3%
Down 2	16	19	45.7%	8	2	80.0%	24	21	53.3%
3rd Defending	54	83	39.4%	31	28	52.5%	85	111	43.4%
Up 1	35	54	39.3%	12	16	42.9%	47	70	40.2%
Up 2	19	29	39.6%	19	12	61.3%	38	41	48.1%

The Leafs were strongly improved in both areas during the third period; wht most striking difference was their performance while defending two goal leads, which was substantially improved over the first half, Toronto managed to generate more chances than their opponents while defending 3rd period leads, which is almost the reverse situation that they were encountering in the first half.


Next, an overall summary of the Leafs' performance at different score states.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
-4	6	9	40.0%	7	5	58.3%	13	14	48.1%
-3	16	20	44.4%	5	3	62.5%	21	23	47.7%
-2	37	52	41.6%	27	21	56.3%	64	73	46.7%
-1	90	93	49.2%	51	53	49.0%	141	146	49.1%
Trailing	149	174	42.1%	90	82	52.3%	239	256	42.9%
0	168	231	42.1%	94	118	44.3%	262	349	42.9%
Leading	152	196	44.4%	72	91	44.2%	224	287	44.9%
1	103	129	44.4%	42	49	46.2%	145	178	44.9%
2	33	46	41.8%	21	19	52.5%	54	65	45.4%
3	12	9	57.1%	5	22	18.5%	17	31	35.4%
4	4	12	25.0%	4	1	80.0%	8	13	38.1%

The Leafs have  increased while trailing, but are almost the same when trailing by one; they've seen their improvement come when trailing by multiple points. They also haven't improved much while leading overall, but it's bin the opposite, as a couple of early leads in games have meant that they have much worse numbers when leading by three, but have slightly improved with one and two goal leads.