Game 68 - Leafs 3, Los Angeles 2 - Solid performance seals winning California trip

A perfect response from the Leafs after their worst game of the season, as they played an even game with a strong LA team, and some great goaltending, from both Reimer and Bernier, and an opportunistic shorthanded goal, allowed them to leave California with four points.

LA's fast start, getting a goal and the first five chances, was worrisome after how poor the Leafs were in San Jose, but Toronto responded well, getting some solid chances on the powerplay, and coming back to be nearly level on the period at even strength as well. Kopitar pulled the home side ahead by two, but a critical powerplay goal from Phaneuf kept the lead to one.

The second period was also a close one, with the pattern going almost in reverse, as the start of the period was won by the Leafs, including getting an equalizing goal from Gunnarsson. After that, LA took charge, but Reimer was able to keep them at bay.

The third period started fairly cagily, but a spectacular sequence featuring a huge Reimer save and a shorthanded goal from Raymond at the other end saw the Leafs move into the lead. After that, the Kings were chasing the victory, and while they did manage a couple of chances with the net empty, they only managed three at ES in the fifteen minutes they were chasing, a fairly successful result for the Leafs.

The Leafs narrowly lost each period, but were close overall, losing 14-10. They also lost ES close, but it was a tight one as well, 11-8.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Los Angeles	Toronto	Los Angeles
1	10	6	4	5
2	6	9	5	6
3	2	7	1	3
Total	18	22	10	14

Details below.

Game 67 - San Jose 6, Leafs 2 - Toronto overwhelmed in second game of back-to-back

It's been a couple of months since the Leafs turned in one of these uninspired performances, as they were badly embarrassed on the second game of their California trip; it's likely that fatigue played an issue, as the back-to-back game after the long flight out is tough, but nevertheless this was one of the Leafs' worst games of the year.

An early exchange of goals may have given some hope that the Leafs could stay with the Sharks, but that didn't last long; Toronto had only one chance other than Gardiner's goal, while San Jose tallied 13. The second was little better, with the Leafs getting just one more chance, and San Jose getting seven, including two goals.

By the third period, the game was out of reach, but there was still no letdown from the Sharks, which had another dominant period, though at least the Leafs managed a little fightback in this one.

This was the worst game of the season for the Leafs in chances, the first time they failed to get more than 20% of the ES chances, an miserable -24 and a season-worst 32 ES chances against. The close chances are even worse, with the Leafs beat out 17-2.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	San Jose	Toronto	San Jose
1	2	13	2	13
2	4	7	1	7
3	7	14	5	12
Total	13	34	8	32

Details below.

Game 66 - Leafs 3, Anaheim 1 - Bernier holds Leafs in it after solid start

The Leafs played a game that fits a style they've established this season, with Phil Kessel and the top line delivering an early lead in a close first period, before the team were completely overwhelmed, depending on Jonathan Bernier to bail them out. This time, it worked well, as this much-hyped road trip got off to a strong start.

A solid first period for Toronto, which had a fairly poor start, but really pressed in the last 3 minutes, getting a powerplay goal from Bozak and another score from Kessel in the final minute. They were outchanced, but only marginally.

The second was a wasteland for the Leafs, who have to thank Jonathan Bernier for getting out of the period still ahead. Paul Ranger added an early goal, Kessel again the provider, but the Ducks dominated the period, outchancing the Leafs 12-3, one of their worst periods in a long time.

Typically, the Leafs have been very poor defending leads in the third period, but that wasn't the case in this games,as they were outchanced, but for the most part managed to keep things from ballooning too badly, only losing out 5-2 at even strength. After a few chances in the first half of the period, Anaheim had a stretch of more than seven minutes in which they didn't get a chance, but when they did get four down the stretch, including a couple with an empty net, Bernier was there.

The Leafs were obliterated in chances, 22-9 at ES and 28-12 overall, but their 5-on-5 close chances were more reasonable, all coming in the first, which ended 6-4 to Anahiem.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Anaheim	Toronto	Anaheim
1	6	6	4	6
2	3	13	3	12
3	3	9	2	4
Total	12	28	9	22

Details below.

Game 65 - Leafs 4, Philadelphia 3 (OT) - Toronto's fourth line comes up strong to get another OT win

A very similar story to the game with the Rangers, as the Leafs stormed out to an early lead, only to give it up in the third period, not just once, but twice. However, they managed to survive to overtime, and scored on their lone chance, making it back to back wins, and four of five games since the Olympic break decided in the extra period.

The Leafs had their best first period of the season in this game, dominating the Flyers 9-2 at even strength, including two goals in the first five minutes that left Philadelphia reeling. The Flyers did manage to generate some chances on a powerplay, but Toronto were in command after one.

The two teams were pretty even in the second, with Toronto having the upper hand in the first half of the frame, but the Flyers responding strongly, getting seven of the last eight chances of the period, capping it with a goal from Kimmo Timonen to cut the lead to one.

While the Leafs managed to blow a pair of leads in the third, it was actually a pretty strong performance from them, relative to how things have gone in third periods this year, as they actually outchanced the Flyers, 5-3. However, a pair of Flyer goals, sandwiching a Mason Raymond marker, pushed the game to overtime, where Joffrey Lupul scored on the only chance.

Back to back wins in chances, as the Leafs dominated the game, winning ES chances 22-12, and close chances 7-1, thanks to their hot start.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Philadelphia	Toronto	Philadelphia
1	9	5	9	2
2	7	10	7	7
3	6	3	5	3
4	1	0	1	0
Total	23	18	22	12

Details below.

Game 64 - Leafs 3, NY Rangers 2 (OT) - Leafs survive another powerplay meltdown

The Leafs did their best to throw away a game they played quite well in, as a pair of shorthanded goals could have cost them a regulation victory, but managed to get a win in overtime to break their losing streak.

The two teams were even most of the way, finishing the first period level in chances, and, despite a large number of chances, scoreless. New York had an overall edge in the second, but left the period trailing, after Tyler Bozak converted on a penalty shot. The Rangers had several good chances to draw level, but in the second half of the period the Leafs seemed to have worked out a strong defensive game, holding the Rangers chanceless for the last nine minutes.

A goal from Kadri early in the third had the Leafs ahead by two, but another powerplay collapse, allowing two goals on one penalty for the second time in a week, suddenly drew the Rangers even. Both sides had chances to take the victory, with the Leafs winning chances 5-4 in the last 13 minutes of regulation. There was just one chance in overtime, but it was converted, Bozak's second giving the Leafs a win.

The Leafs won the ES chance battle, 22-19, their best performance since the end of the Olympics. Close chances had a similar margin, Toronto winning them 20-18.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	NY Rangers	Toronto	NY Rangers
1	10	8	10	8
2	4	8	4	6
3	8	6	7	5
4	1	0	1	0
Total	23	22	22	19

Details below.

Game 63 - Columbus 2, Leafs 1 - Terrible second period leads to Leaf defeat

The Leafs were even with Columbus on chances in the first and the third, but were badly beaten in the second, and the two goals they surrendered were the difference for the Blue Jackets

It was a strong first period for the Leafs, despite a couple of lapses, as they took the chance lead thanks to a couple of powerplays, but weren't able to take advantage with a goal.

Halfway through the second, the game was still well within control for Toronto, but in the last 12 minutes they were outchanced 10-1, and Columbus picked up a pair of goals.

Toronto weren't able to dominate the game while chasing in the third, as they ended up even with Columbus, but they did manage 5 ES chances. However, after Raymond scored to cut the lead to one, they managed only a single chance, Bozak putting a shot wide with the Leaf net empty.

The Jackets' big second period led them to a dominant ES chance win, though the Leafs' effectiveness in getting chances, though no goal, on early powerplays made the overall closer. The close chances also went to Columbus, but narrowly, only 7-5; things only went south for the Leafs in the second once they were already down by two.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Columbus	Toronto	Columbus
1	8	4	4	4
2	2	10	2	10
3	6	5	5	5
Total	16	19	11	19

Details below.

3/4 point summary - Player data

Having already discussed the team stats, I'll move onto looking at the players.

First, forwards who have played at least 100 minutes minutes overall at even strength. This excludes 5 players (Devane, Leivo, Broll, Abbott and McKegg):

F/20, A/20 and N/20 are the even strength chance rates per 20 minutes ice time.

Overall	Pos	ESF	ESA	ESD	ES%	ESTOI	AvESTOI	F/20	A/20	N/20
D'Amigo	F	30	29	1	50.8%	130:01	06:50	4.6	4.5	0.2
Kessel	F	347	363	-16	48.9%	1057:55	17:03	6.6	6.9	-0.3
Van Riemsdyk	F	306	328	-22	48.3%	956:04	15:56	6.4	6.9	-0.5
Bozak	F	194	216	-22	47.3%	630:03	16:34	6.2	6.9	-0.7
Kulemin	F	153	172	-19	47.1%	683:40	13:40	4.5	5.0	-0.6
Kadri	F	254	287	-33	47.0%	876:40	15:06	5.8	6.5	-0.8
Bolland	F	41	47	-6	46.6%	202:59	13:31	4.0	4.6	-0.6
Clarkson	F	136	168	-32	44.7%	608:02	14:49	4.5	5.5	-1.1
Ashton	F	34	44	-10	43.6%	182:02	06:04	3.7	4.8	-1.1
Smith	F	51	67	-16	43.2%	257:14	09:53	4.0	5.2	-1.2
Raymond	F	210	291	-81	41.9%	880:14	14:11	4.8	6.6	-1.8
Orr	F	33	46	-13	41.8%	248:00	05:30	2.7	3.7	-1.0
Lupul	F	191	272	-81	41.3%	842:45	15:54	4.5	6.5	-1.9
McClement	F	133	191	-58	41.0%	734:58	12:02	3.6	5.2	-1.6
Bodie	F	41	59	-18	41.0%	205:02	07:35	4.0	5.8	-1.8
Holland	F	90	131	-41	40.7%	369:23	11:32	4.9	7.1	-2.2
McLaren	F	10	17	-7	37.0%	105:56	04:04	1.9	3.2	-1.3
Smithson	F	10	27	-17	27.0%	125:02	06:56	1.6	4.3	-2.7

Jerry D'Amigo definitely seemed to deserve another shot at the NHL, as he was very effective in his relatively limited time, the only Leaf who was on for more chances for than against. 

Nazem Kadri led this list at the halfway point, but has fallen behind the players on the big line, with Phil Kessel pulling up to lead the current roster in percentage and in chances overall. The big line is the worst defensive line, but is also on for farm more chances against than any other set of forwards; Kadri is almost as poor defensively, but generates almost a chance/20 minutes less than Kessel, and Raymond and Lupul generate two chances/20 fewer.

Nik Kulemin continues to impress, posting a differentialy almost as good as the top line players, and it certainly seems like any move to trade him, while keeping struggling chance players like Raymond and Lupul, would be a big mistake.

Joffrey Lupul has consistently been the most disappointing forward on the team, really struggling to generate chances, despite being moved around in the lineup; separating Kessel and JVR seems to be insane, but if one of those players could be effective without another, it might be worth it to jumpstart Lupul. 

The return of David Bolland will be an interesting point, as it's not clear what level of play he'll manage after his return from injury; if he can be around the 47% level he put together while healthy, it would be a big boost, reducing the ice time of players like Smith (43%), McClement (41%) and Holland (41%).

The big three have been the best offensive performers on the team, with Kadri the next best in terms of generating chances. Defensively, the best numbers belong to the low-event fourth liners, along with the injured Bolland; other than those players, the best is the aforementioned Kulemin.

I also put together some data on forward lines:

These have some pretty small sample sizes, but here's every line on for at least 20 total chances (unfortunately, I don't have icetime for these line combos).

Line	Total	For	Against	Ch%
Bozak-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	164	146	18	52.9%
Kadri-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	83	72	11	53.5%
Kadri-Lupul-Raymond	30	39	-9	43.5%
Kadri-Lupul-Kulemin	26	32	-6	44.8%
Holland-Lupul-Raymond	22	35	-13	38.6%
Kadri-Clarkson-Raymond	21	25	-4	45.7%
Kadri-Lupul-Clarkson	19	27	-8	41.3%
Holland-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	17	26	-9	39.5%
Smith-Clarkson-Raymond	18	24	-6	42.9%
McClement-Clarkson-Kulemin	23	19	4	54.8%
Smith-Lupul-Clarkson	14	15	-1	48.3%
McClement-D'Amigo-Kulemin	17	9	8	65.4%
Holland-Bodie-Raymond	10	15	-5	40.0%
McClement-Raymond-Kulemin	13	11	2	54.2%
Bozak-Kessel-Raymond	8	14	-6	36.4%
Kadri-Kessel-Lupul	12	10	2	54.5%
Kadri-Lupul-Broll	7	13	-6	35.0%

Kessel and JVR are the key to the Leafs' two consistently effective lines, but Kulemin also has been useful with McClement, whether Clarkson, D'Amigo or Raymond has been the winger. Holland-Lupul-Raymond has beeen a really poor line, and Holland was much worse than Kadri with Kessel and JVR.

Next, the defense:

Overall	Pos	ESF	ESA	ESD	ES%	ESTOI	AvESTOI	F/20	A/20	N/20
Gunnarsson	D	266	281	-15	48.6%	1005:37	16:29	5.3	5.6	-0.3
Phaneuf	D	278	317	-39	46.7%	1072:45	17:52	5.2	5.9	-0.7
Gleason	D	74	86	-12	46.3%	314:52	16:34	4.7	5.5	-0.8
Rielly	D	214	265	-51	44.7%	832:38	15:42	5.1	6.4	-1.2
Ranger	D	146	186	-40	44.0%	625:08	16:01	4.7	6.0	-1.3
Gardiner	D	259	339	-80	43.3%	1086:35	18:06	4.8	6.2	-1.5
Fraser	D	57	75	-18	43.2%	241:31	12:42	4.7	6.2	-1.5
Franson	D	229	315	-86	42.1%	978:04	16:18	4.7	6.4	-1.8

Gunnarsson continued to be the top defenseman, but the addition of Gleason has been a clear positive, as he slots in close to Phaneuf in terms of performance. Reducing the burden on the likes of Franson and Ranger has an excellent result, and Gleason has been an excellent addition (for comparison, Liles was at 43.8% this season).

Cody Franson's poor season continues, as he remaines mired at the bottom of the team percentages, not generating much offense and having one of the worst defensive records as well. Rielly is on for as many chances, but is one of the better Leafs at generating chances. 
 

Pairing	Total	For	Against	Ch%
Phaneuf-Gunnarsson	193	205	-12	48.5%
Franson-Gardiner	100	125	-25	44.4%
Rielly-Gardiner	60	61	-1	49.6%
Ranger-Gardiner	50	62	-12	44.6%
Franson-Rielly	39	62	-23	38.6%
Ranger-Rielly	48	42	6	53.3%
Franson-Gleason	35	37	-2	48.6%
Fraser-Ranger	22	34	-12	39.3%
Phaneuf-Gardiner	19	27	-8	41.3%
Gleason-Rielly	19	26	-7	42.2%
Franson-Gunnarsson	21	16	5	56.8%
Phaneuf-Franson	14	22	-8	38.9%
Gunnarsson-Gardiner	18	15	3	54.5%
Fraser-Rielly	12	18	-6	40.0%

It's pretty clear that using Franson with Gleason has been vastly superior to using him with one of the rookie defensmen, who had been his primary partners to this point; The Leafs can now actualyl put together three solid ES defensive pairings in Phaneuf-Gunnarsson, Franson-Gleason and Rielly-Gardiner, as all three of these partnerships have been over 48% when on the ice. It's the likes of Franson/Gardiner and Franson/Rielly, along with Ranger/Gardiner, that have been troublesome.



For questions/comments, feel free to add below or on twitter @BAWDisease