Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Scoring Chance Summary - Defencemen

Here is the list of defensemen in terms of chances and Corsi at 5-on-5 close.



Cody Franson
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
79
ES
44.9%
2.6%
298
395
4.7
6.2
43.0%
16:08
5-on-5 Close
44.2%
2.5%
166
230
4.5
6.2
41.9%
09:21

 
Before the season, Franson signed a 2 million dollar one-year deal, which will keep him an RFA for the upcoming offseason, and will pose a potential difficulty for the Leafs. After having a decent year last season, he has struggled this year. His Corsi numbers were still better than most of the other defenders, but his chance numbers were the worst among regular defenders. He never really seemed to be comfortable with Jake Gardiner, who he played with more than any other defender. Franson was used differently this season, as he got consistent top-4 minutes, unlike the first part of the lockout season, when he played on a bottom pairing with Mark Fraser.  Franson's defensive numbers weren't bad, but his rate of generating chances was down, as were his point totals, which may be down to playing against improved opposition. He was one of few players who improved over the course of the year, as his chance numbers were extremely poor through the first 30 games, but he did quite well in the last weeks of the season.

Jake Gardiner
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
80
ES
46.4%
5.7%
356
458
4.9
6.3
43.7%
18:11
5-on-5 Close
45.4%
4.9%
188
257
4.6
6.3
42.2%
10:11

 
Gardiner has strong performances in the closing days of the season, as a lot of the other Leafs struggled. Also, despite having some rough periods in the mid-season, he led the Leafs in ES icetime on the season, logging 60 minutes more than Phaneuf over the course of the year. He's another player who was strong in Corsi, with easily the best possession numbers of any Leaf, but saw chances lag behind. Only rookie Morgan Rielly had more protected zone starts and he had much weaker opposition than Franson, but Gardiner failed to turn that into a lot of chances, as only Franson was below him among the regulars.

Tim Gleason
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
39
ES
39.3%
-5.2%
137
181
4.7
6.3
43.1%
14:50
5-on-5 Close
37.2%
-6.2%
82
108
4.5
6.0
43.2%
09:17

 
Gleason, acquired during the Winter Classic, had a solid start, but tailed off, and ended up down near the bottom of the defensman rankings. He was the lowest of the regulars in both Corsi measures, and ended up falling behind Gardiner in 5-on-5 close chance%. He got difficult assignments, with only Phaneuf and Gunnarsson ahead of him in that respect. His chance numbers ended up being right around the average for the team. He played quite a bit with Rielly, but they struggled as a partnership, while with Franson he had a near-50% chance percentage.

Carl Gunnarsson
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
80
ES
40.1%
-4.0%
333
384
5.1
5.9
46.4%
16:16
5-on-5 Close
40.7%
-2.0%
201
212
5.3
5.6
48.7%
09:24

 
Gunnarsson is one of the most confusing players on the Leafs; his Corsi numbers are near the bottom for the season, but he has been a clear leader in the chance percentages, both ES and 5-on-5 close, for much of the season. His strong offensive numbers are likely due to the amount of time he spent with the top line, compared to the other pairings, but he also had far-and-away the best defensive chances rate of any Leaf defender.  One potential explanation is blocked shots; Gunnarsson had a much higher shots blocked rate than the other Leaf defenders, and was the only Leaf defender to have a negative close Corsi Rel and a positive close Fenwick rel. Since chances don't include blocked shots, the Swede's propensity for blocks likely helps his chance percentage. Still, I'm not convinced that's enough to explain the difference; it's probably linked to whatever factors inflated Gunnarsson's on-ice Sh%, which led him to have the highest PDO on the team. His tailing off towards the end of the year, which did see his PDO come down, is surely closely linked to the Leafs' collapse. Whether it was an inevitable regression, or a result of a player wearing down after too many difficult minutes over the course of a busy season is unclear to me.

Dion Phaneuf
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
80
ES
40.8%
-2.8%
350
442
5.0
6.3
44.2%
17:27
5-on-5 Close
40.0%
-2.9%
198
253
5.0
6.4
43.9%
09:50

 
The Leafs' captain gets a lot of heat in the media, and while his leadership abilities are somewhat of an open question, a fair amount of the attention for his on-ice play is unwarranted. He plays a lot of minutes, probably too many, as the only defenseman to get time on all three units. His defensive numbers are similar to the likes of Gardiner and Franson, but he's got offensive numbers more like Gunnarsson, which may again be due to getting more time with the big line. Phaneuf's QoC is just slightly higher than Gunnarsson's, and his Corsi numbers are slightly better. Getting as many minutes as he does, and having them be so difficult, a marginally negative CorsiRel isn't a bad result. Phaneuf probably shouldn't be the first pairing shutdown guy Randy Carlyle seemed to use him as, but he is still an effective defenseman who will be a key part of whatever the Leafs build going forwards.

Paul Ranger
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
53
ES
42.3%
0.2%
195
248
4.8
6.1
44.0%
15:16
5-on-5 Close
41.7%
-0.1%
118
154
5.1
6.7
43.4%
08:42

 
Returning to the NHL after three seasons away, Paul Ranger took some time to get up to steam, and had a number of gaffes early, but on the whole ended up having a decent season.  Carlyle used him a lot in the defensive zone, where he had a high percentage of zone starts, but not against top competition, as he was level with the likes of Rielly and Gardiner in QoC. He shuttled between a number of different pairings, but was at his most effective with Morgan Rielly.  While Ranger isn't anything special, I think he should be able to stay in the NHL as a bottom pair defenseman; whether that should be with the Leafs is a different question. Ranger was the most event-heavy of the defense corps, with high offensive numbers, but also fairly weak defensive numbers, rate wise.
 
Morgan Rielly
GP
State
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
73
ES
44.5%
2.8%
291
361
5.1
6.3
44.6%
15:35
5-on-5 Close
42.6%
1.9%
157
208
5.0
6.6
43.0%
08:40

 
As a rookie 19-year-old, Morgan Rielly had a solid start to his career, and while his defensive game still needs some polish, he showed a degree of skating speed and offensive ability that should leave people excited. He benefited from exactly the sort of things you'd expect a rookie defenseman to get; relatively easy competition and very soft zone starts. This helped him to be the best of the offensive defensemen outside the top pairing guys, but his defensive numbers were among the worst as well, a clear sign that improvement is needed in the future. I'd be intrigued to see him with Jake Gardiner long-term, they were a very effective tandem when used together.


Player
GP
CF%
CFRel%
ChF
ChA
O/20
D/20
Ch%
TOI
Gunnarsson
80
40.7%
-2.0%
201
212
5.3
5.6
48.7%
09:24
Phaneuf
80
40.0%
-2.9%
198
253
5.0
6.4
43.9%
09:50
Ranger
53
41.7%
-0.1%
118
154
5.1
6.7
43.4%
08:42
Gleason
39
37.2%
-6.2%
82
108
4.5
6.0
43.2%
09:17
Rielly
73
42.6%
1.9%
157
208
5.0
6.6
43.0%
08:40
Gardiner
80
45.4%
4.9%
188
257
4.6
6.3
42.2%
10:11
Franson
79
44.2%
2.5%
166
230
4.5
6.2
41.9%
09:21

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