Thursday, November 28, 2013

Game 25 - Pittsburgh 6, Leafs 5 (SO) - Toronto survive third period to earn a point

Through two periods, the Leafs looked in strong shape against a good Pittsburgh team, perhaps a bit fortunate to lead, but right in the game. After the third, they seemed lucky to survive to a shootout and earn a point.

While a quick Pittsburgh goal was a discouraging start, the Leafs struck back through JVR on the powerplay, then saw Nazem Kadri put them ahead. They trailed in chances after one, though.

The second was a wild period, Toronto seizing a 4-1 lead, before a couple of powerplay goals pulled the lead back to one; Tyler Bozak then provided a further twist with a goal in the last five seconds to restore the two-goal lead. This was Toronto's strongest period, as they won by three at even strength.

The even play of the first two periods then disappeared in the final frame, as Pittsburgh totally dominated the third. The Penguins generated 12 chances, 8 at even strength, along with a pair of goals, while the Leafs didn't put a single shot on net in the period, and didn't generate a single chance. Frankly, given this showing, the Leafs were lucky to make it to overtime, where they did come up with a chance (though it wasn't a shot on goal), and held Pittsburgh to one as well.

After the disaster against Columbus, the Leafs seemed in good shape in the first two periods, but fell off so badly in the third period that the game was almost as bad overall, and worse at even strength. However, it isn't even the worst two-game stretch of the Leafs season, with that honour going to the Carolina and Chicago games. The -12 and -8 were the worst for any period so far this season, though the third was not the first time the Leafs have gone chanceless in the third, as they did the same against New Jersey in that shootout win.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Pittsburgh Toronto Pittsburgh
1 6 9 5 9
2 7 4 6 3
3 0 12 0 8
4 1 1 1 1
Total 14 26 12 21

Details below.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Game 24 - Columbus 6, Leafs 0 - Abysmal performance leads to a blowout

The Leafs had their worst performance of the season to date against Columbus, and were duly punished for it, handily beaten 6-0.

Two quick Blue Jacket goals midway through the first period pulled them into a lead they'd never relinquish, and Toronto generated only two more chances before Columbus extended their lead to four midway in the second.

Toronto's scoring chance drought continued in the third, as they again generated only two chances, while watching Columbus add another pair of goals.

The eight chance deficit at even strength was one of the worse performances of the season, but not nearly as bad as their performance in Chicago. The real problem was the Leafs' inability to produce chances, as they had only 5 overall, their lowest of the season (they had fewer at ES in the first Minnesota game, though).

A summary of the scoring chances:



Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Columbus Toronto Columbus
1 2 5 2 5
2 1 6 1 5
3 2 7 2 3
Total 5 18 5 13


Details below.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Game 23 - Leafs 2, Washington 1 (SO) - Caps can't turn Corsi into chances

One of the biggest blowouts against the Leafs in terms of Corsi not only resulted in a Toronto win, but also in an extension of their streak of outchancing teams at even strength, as they came 5 minutes away from winning outright against Washington, before Ovechkin struck and left them to win it in a shootout.

The game started with a flurry of Washington chances, but Toronto responded well, and managed to win the last 16 minutes of the period 9-3, to end up taking the frame as a whole.

The second saw the Leafs get outshot, in particular on a bucnh of powerplay shots, but Washington's propensity for taking shots from the point, combined with the Leafs defensive approach, meant that the Caps generated only 4 chances all period, and only one at even strength, resulting in an easy Leafs victory on the chance front. In addition, David Clarkson scored again, putting the Leafs up on the scoreboard.

The final period saw Washington come out hard, dominating chances, and coming out with a deserved goal late in the game from Ovechkin. This was really a poor period from the Leafs, score effects are one thing, but to give up 11 chances, the worst third period of the season, is really troublesome; especially when they had a similar game recently against Buffalo.

While being heavily outshot, the Leafs won the chance battle, thanks to a good overtime period (an area where they've been strong all year). It's now a 5-game streak of not being outshot.

A summary of the scoring chances:



Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Washington Toronto Washington
1 9 7 9 7
2 8 4 6 1
3 4 14 4 11
4 4 1 4 1
Total 25 26 23 20

Details below.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Game 22 - Nashville 4, Leafs 2 - Toronto wins chances, loses after poor 2nd period

After opening with one of their stronger periods this season, the Leafs seemed to have the edge at home against Nashville, but weren't able to keep it up, eventually falling 4-2.

The Leafs managed 12 chances in an excellent opening frame; this came despite only being credited with 11 shots, as they hit a post and sent five chances wide. This lack of accuracy may have ended up hurting them, as despite their domination, they left the frame up only 1-0.

It was Nashville's turn to dominate in the second, and not only did they manage to better the Leafs' chance margin in the first, they scored three times to seize the lead going into the final period. Another early goal, a bad one from Bernier, really had Toronto on the back foot, and after the Leafs couldn't score on a solid stretch right either side of the 10 minute mark, they only managed one more chance the rest of the way. They did get a goal without a chance, when Kadri's long shot deflected in, but couldn't get closer than two goals.

Despite the defeat, this four-game stretch without losing the chance battle is the longest for the Leafs this year. Of course, it's also their longest stretch playing teams that aren't currently in playoff position, so the positive results in that aspect aren't unexpected.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Nashville Toronto Nashville
1 12 4 8 3
2 2 11 2 8
3 5 3 5 3
Total 19 18 15 14

Details below.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Scoring chance summary - Through 21 games

This is a quick summary of the Leafs' chance performance through the first 21 games. First, the team totals:



Overall ES PP SH
ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net %
313 400 -87 43.9% 230 296 -66 43.7% 77 7 70 91.7% 6 97 -91 5.8%


Game 21 - Leafs 5, NY Islanders 2 - Leafs control Tavares line, win over Islanders

Toronto's first game against the Islanders had some touchy moments, but overall was a fairly strong one, relative to their normal performances, and they were able to resist a couple of late challenges from the Isles to get a second straight win.

The first was a pretty low impact period, as after Trevor Smith opened the scoring inside the first 30 seconds, there were just 6 more chances in the frame. The Isles then took some control early in the second, outchancing Toronto 5-1 in the first 9 minutes, only to allow Toronto to get back level in the second half. During this time, the Leafs scored a powerplay goal to extend the lead, but Casey Cizikas' late marker pulled them back within one to start the third.

The third was the most open period, the two teams exchanging plenty of chances. Toronto pulled back two ahead through Raymond, then Clarkson provided further insurance, with a late Kessel goal securing victory.

This was the 3rd consecutive game in which the Leafs didn't lose ES chances, their second such streak of the season. While trading chances so much with a lead in the third period isn't ideal, the Leafs were at least able to keep pace.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto NY Islanders Toronto NY Islanders
1 4 3 4 3
2 6 8 5 6
3 10 10 8 8
Total 20 21 17 17

Follow below the fold for details. 

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Game 20 - Leafs 4, Buffalo 2 - Leafs get revenge against Sabres, but almost lose it in the 3rd

The second part of a back-to-back with struggling Buffalo ended much better for the Leafs, as they earned a solid home win to break even. However, there were some major problems late in the game, as Toronto had one of its worst third periods of the season.

Through two, this was a dream game for the Leafs, they were up 3-0 after JVR scored a pair and Nik Kulemin broke his goalscoring drought, and had outchanced Buffalo 12-3 overall and 11-2 at even strength, including blanking the Sabres at even strength in the second.

The third was a strong answer from Buffalo; this is likely at least partially down to score effects, but getting outchanced 10-2 at even strength is concerning whatever the score is. Two goals early in the period meant Buffalo was chasing an equalizer for a good 12 minutes, but they weren't able to get past Reimer again, and Raymond scored a late powerplay goal to restore the Leafs' two goal lead.

Toronto won scoring chances again, though only barely, as they squandered most of their advantage in the first 2/3rds of the game in the final period. In fact, with this win, the Leafs outchanced their opposition in back-to-back games for the first time all season.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Buffalo Toronto Buffalo
1 9 2 8 2
2 3 1 3 0
3 5 11 2 10
Total 17 14 13 12

Follow below the fold for details.