3/4 point summary - Team, period and score related data

Here is a summary of the Leafs scoring chance data I've been tracking so far this season. Data related to players is in another post. 

First, the team totals:

	Overall				ES				PP				SH
	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
First Half	655	815	-160	44.6%	505	630	-125	44.5%	141	17	124	89.2%	8	167	-159	4.6%
Q3	338	408	-70	45.3%	270	318	-48	45.9%	55	20	35	73.3%	10	66	-56	13.2%
Total	993	1223	-230	44.8%	775	948	-173	45.0%	196	37	159	84.1%	18	233	-215	7.2%

The Leafs have seen a marginal increase in their chance percentage over the last 20 games, but still remain around the 45% mark. They've been much better at generating chances shorthanded, but have also been more permissive on the powerplay themselves.

From extraskater.com, here are the Corsi data for the Leafs in the same situations:

	Overall				ES				PP				SH
	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
First Half	2121	2744	-623	43.6%	1596	2125	-529	42.9%	347	45	302	88.5%	25	409	-384	5.8%
Q3	1125	1380	-255	44.9%	1005	1223	-218	45.1%	179	42	137	81.0%	15	215	-200	6.5%
Total	3246	4124	-878	44.0%	2601	3348	-747	43.7%	526	87	439	85.8%	40	624	-584	6.0%

The increase in chance percentage is matched by an increase in Corsi percentages.

Game	Opp	Overall				ES				PP				SH
		ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
42	DET	11	22	-11	33.3%	9	16	-7	36.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
43	NYR	19	27	-8	41.3%	18	21	-3	46.2%	0	0	0	-	0	6	-6	0.0%
44	NYI	15	11	4	57.7%	11	9	2	55.0%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
45	CAR	13	23	-10	36.1%	12	13	-1	48.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%	1	9	-8	10.0%
46	WAS	23	17	6	57.5%	13	16	-3	44.8%	8	0	8	100.0%	2	1	1	66.7%
47	NJD	20	22	-2	47.6%	15	17	-2	46.9%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
48	BOS	13	22	-9	37.1%	7	17	-10	29.2%	5	2	3	71.4%	1	3	-2	25.0%
49	BUF	15	13	2	53.6%	12	11	1	52.2%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
50	MTL	16	20	-4	44.4%	13	16	-3	44.8%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
51	PHX	12	24	-12	33.3%	8	13	-5	38.1%	4	5	-1	44.4%	0	6	-6	0.0%
52	COL	17	18	-1	48.6%	13	16	-3	44.8%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
53	DAL	8	22	-14	26.7%	8	19	-11	29.6%	0	2	-2	0.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
54	WPG	15	19	-4	44.1%	12	15	-3	44.4%	3	1	2	75.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
55	TBL	17	23	-6	42.5%	13	13	0	50.0%	2	3	-1	40.0%	2	7	-5	22.2%
56	FLA	17	18	-1	48.6%	12	14	-2	46.2%	4	1	3	80.0%	1	3	-2	25.0%
57	OTT	16	13	3	55.2%	13	12	1	52.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	1	0	50.0%
58	FLA	15	19	-4	44.1%	14	19	-5	42.4%	0	0	0	-	1	0	1	100.0%
59	TBL	31	20	11	60.8%	28	20	8	58.3%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	0	0	-
60	VAN	16	12	4	57.1%	14	7	7	66.7%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
61	NYI	14	25	-11	35.9%	12	19	-7	38.7%	1	2	-1	33.3%	0	0	0	-
62	MTL	15	18	-3	45.5%	13	15	-2	46.4%	1	1	0	50.0%	1	2	-1	33.3%

Here is ES chance data for the Leafs by period:

	First Half			Q3			Total
Period	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
1	156	200	43.8%	80	110	42.1%	236	310	43.2%
2	164	204	44.6%	86	95	47.5%	250	299	45.5%
3	150	198	43.1%	95	95	50.0%	245	293	45.5%
4	25	13	65.8%	7	14	33.3%	32	27	54.2%

Despite the increase overall, the Leafs have been worse in first periods than in the first half; the uptick has come in the second, and especially in the third, where Toronto has been much more effective.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
Close	295	372	44.2%	155	188	45.2%	450	560	44.6%

The uptick for the Leafs in chances has also come in close situations, though 45% is still very low in these situations.


I looked again at the Leafs in the third period, to compare how they were at defending and chasing leads.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
3rd Chasing	47	46	50.5%	28	18	60.9%	75	64	54.0%
Down 1	31	27	53.4%	20	16	55.6%	51	43	54.3%
Down 2	16	19	45.7%	8	2	80.0%	24	21	53.3%
3rd Defending	54	83	39.4%	31	28	52.5%	85	111	43.4%
Up 1	35	54	39.3%	12	16	42.9%	47	70	40.2%
Up 2	19	29	39.6%	19	12	61.3%	38	41	48.1%

The Leafs were strongly improved in both areas during the third period; wht most striking difference was their performance while defending two goal leads, which was substantially improved over the first half, Toronto managed to generate more chances than their opponents while defending 3rd period leads, which is almost the reverse situation that they were encountering in the first half.


Next, an overall summary of the Leafs' performance at different score states.

	First Half			Q3			Total
State	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%	For	Against	Ch%
-4	6	9	40.0%	7	5	58.3%	13	14	48.1%
-3	16	20	44.4%	5	3	62.5%	21	23	47.7%
-2	37	52	41.6%	27	21	56.3%	64	73	46.7%
-1	90	93	49.2%	51	53	49.0%	141	146	49.1%
Trailing	149	174	42.1%	90	82	52.3%	239	256	42.9%
0	168	231	42.1%	94	118	44.3%	262	349	42.9%
Leading	152	196	44.4%	72	91	44.2%	224	287	44.9%
1	103	129	44.4%	42	49	46.2%	145	178	44.9%
2	33	46	41.8%	21	19	52.5%	54	65	45.4%
3	12	9	57.1%	5	22	18.5%	17	31	35.4%
4	4	12	25.0%	4	1	80.0%	8	13	38.1%

The Leafs have  increased while trailing, but are almost the same when trailing by one; they've seen their improvement come when trailing by multiple points. They also haven't improved much while leading overall, but it's bin the opposite, as a couple of early leads in games have meant that they have much worse numbers when leading by three, but have slightly improved with one and two goal leads.

Game 62 - Montreal 4, Leafs 3 (OT) - Leafs survive poor start, but lose lead, fall in OT

Toronto again blew a late lead and lost in overtime at Montreal, after rallying from another poor opening period to get ahead.

Montreal had the first six chances of the game, and were rewarded with a pair of goals; once they had that lead, Toronto woke up, closing out the period with six chances of their own, including a goal from Van Riemsdyk, though a late Montreal rally threatened to restore the lead.

After the busy opening period, the second had very little action, just three chances between the two teams. Toronto then came alive somewhat in the third, getting a shorthanded goal from JVR, and another from Kessel, winning the period in chances. Unfortunately, a powerplay goal from Subban made the Leafs' lead shortlived, and they struggled in the overtime period, ending up on the penalty kill a couple of times, including for the winning goal.

Montreal won the ES chances 15-13, but Toronto won the game from the five minute mark of the first period on, 13-10. Toronto were badly beaten in ES close, though, 14-7.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Montreal	Toronto	Montreal
1	6	10	6	9
2	1	2	1	2
3	6	2	4	2
4	2	4	2	2
Total	15	18	13	15

Details below.

Game 61 - NY Islanders 5, Leafs 4 (OT) - Toronto blow two late leads to lose on the Island

Toronto's return to NHL action seemed poised for victory in the third period, but they weren't able to hold on against the now Tavares-less Islanders, ultimately losing the game in overtime.

The Leafs started well, getting the better of the early chances, and taking the lead through Kessel. However, after that goal, the Isles pounced, dominating the rest of the period, including while the Leafs were on the powerplay, during which a couple of Leaf mistakes allowed Grabner a pair of short-handed goals.

The second was a more even and quiet period, with the Leafs slightly having the better of it, but not generating much. After that, the third was a huge contrast, going wild with a lot of chances for both sides. The two teams exchanged chances early, but after Ranger scored to level the game, the Isles put up a strong fight, with Toronto outchanced 9-3 after that point. Two of these three chances went in, with Phaneuf and Lupul scoring to give the Leafs two leads, but each time the Isles came up with an answer, through Lee, before another giveaway in overtime allowed Visnovsky to score a winner.

The Isles easily won the ES chances, 19-12, and 13-7 ES close. The really concerning thing for the Leafs is how the game finished, as they were totally unable to maintain the leads they picked up, and weren't able to take advantage of their opportunistic finishing.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	NY Islanders	Toronto	NY Islanders
1	5	9	3	6
2	3	3	2	1
3	7	11	7	10
4	0	2	0	2
Total	15	25	12	19

Details below.

Game 60 - Leafs 3, Vancouver 1 - Toronto head into Olympic break with dominant third period

The last game before the Olympic break was a quiet, relatively even game through two periods, before the Leafs produced a spectacular closing period to secure victory and head for the break on a real positive

A dull first period, with just two even strength chances, saw Vancouver get a lucky break late, when Kesler's shot was totally mishandled by Jonathan Bernier. The Leafs had the edge in the second, but weren't able to turn it into a goal, as it was another very quiet frame.

Toronto had one of its best periods of the year in the third, handily outchancing Vancouver while chasing down the lead. The Leafs won ES chances 8-1 before Raymond managed to draw the game level against his former team. While Vancouver showed a little fightback after that, Phil Kessel broke open the game with a shot from outside, before a lucky break from JVR, banking it in off a defender, gave Toronto a two-goal lead. Vancouver generated a couple of chances in the last couple of minutes, but weren't able to get one past Bernier, and the Leafs held on.

After allowing a lot of chances against Tampa, it was a much tougher defensive effort from Toronto, which allowed just 7 ES chances. After just 6 ES chances between the two teams in the first two periods, the Leafs generated 11 in the third period on their own, allowing them to double up on Vancouver.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Vancouver	Toronto	Vancouver
1	1	4	0	2
2	4	1	3	1
3	11	7	11	4
Total	16	12	14	7

Details below.


This was my list of scoring chances from the game. If you see any problems or omissions (here or anywhere else), please go ahead and leave a comment. 

Club	St	P	Time	Note	Toronto						Vancouver
TOR	PP	1	15:03	Franson from Bozak	42	81	21	3	4	45	15	14	2	5	1	-
VAN	SH	1	06:07	Schroeder from Corrado	11	41	3	36	45	-	45	36	20	5	26	1
VAN	SH	1	05:50	Kesler drives	12	21	8	15	45	-	17	14	22	23	24	1
VAN	ES	1	01:11	Hamhuis from Burrows	42	81	21	3	36	45	45	14	22	2	24	1
VAN	ES	1	00:29	Hansen from Higgins	43	71	21	8	51	45	17	36	20	18	23	1
TOR	ES	2	16:21	Phaneuf from Clarkson	43	19	71	3	44	45	21	29	54	23	24	1
VAN	ES	2	13:28	Kesler from rebound of Edler shot	40	12	41	8	44	45	17	36	20	23	24	1
TOR	ES	2	11:00	Raymond wraparound	40	12	41	4	51	45	21	29	54	23	24	1
TOR	ES	2	06:12	Kessel wide from Van Riemsdyk	42	81	21	15	51	45	36	29	54	23	24	1
TOR	PP	2	00:05	Van Riemsdyk wide from Clarkson	42	71	21	3	4	45	15	36	18	23	1	-
VAN	SH	3	18:31	Kesler wide from rebound of Edler shot	42	12	8	15	45	-	17	20	22	23	24	1
VAN	ES	3	17:41	Booth wide from Richardson	42	81	12	8	51	45	15	36	7	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	16:48	Kessel from loose puck	43	81	19	15	44	45	45	9	29	18	26	1
TOR	ES	3	16:17	Lupul wraparound	43	81	19	15	44	45	45	9	29	18	26	1
TOR	ES	3	15:29	Raymond from loose puck	71	12	41	4	51	45	17	21	54	23	24	1
TOR	ES	3	15:27	Kulemin wide from rebound of Raymond shot	71	12	41	4	51	45	17	21	54	23	24	1
TOR	ES	3	14:50	Raymond from faceoff	40	12	41	3	36	45	17	36	20	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	13:02	Raymond from loose puck	40	12	41	3	36	45	17	36	20	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	12:46	Kulemin wide from rebound of Gunnarsson shot	40	12	41	3	36	45	17	36	20	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	12:37	GOAL! Raymond drives	40	12	41	3	36	45	17	36	20	2	5	1
VAN	ES	3	12:18	Booth from Kassian	43	19	71	15	51	45	9	15	7	23	24	1
VAN	ES	3	11:27	Burrows drives	43	81	19	3	36	45	45	14	22	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	07:57	Kessel wide from Bozak	42	81	21	4	51	45	9	15	7	23	24	1
TOR	ES	3	06:26	Kulemin drives	40	12	41	3	36	45	17	36	20	23	24	1
VAN	ES	3	03:24	Burrows from Schroeder	42	81	21	3	36	45	45	14	22	2	5	1
TOR	ES	3	03:12	Kessel post from Van Riemsdyk	42	81	21	3	8	45	45	14	22	2	5	1
VAN	EN	3	01:34	Richardson from Edler	40	12	41	8	51	45	17	15	7	22	23	24
VAN	EN	3	00:34	Higgins drives	42	19	41	3	36	45	17	45	20	22	5	24

The Extra Skater game profile.

In addition to the good game in chances, the Leafs did well in Corsi, winning overall 62-57, 53-40 5-on-5 and 33-31 5-on-5 close.

The scoring chance numbers for Leaf players:

Player	F	A	D	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESD	EVTOI	PPF	PPA	PPD	PPTOI	SHF	SHA	SHD	SHTOI
Phaneuf	9	5	4	22:54	7	3	4	17:35	2	0	2	03:08	0	2	-2	02:11
Franson	6	0	6	13:14	4	0	4	10:17	2	0	2	02:49	0	0	0	00:08
Gleason	1	6	-5	19:31	1	3	-2	18:32	0	0	0	00:00	0	3	-3	00:59
McClement	0	1	-1	05:22	0	0	0	04:06	0	0	0	00:00	0	1	-1	01:16
Raymond	8	5	3	20:20	8	2	6	16:43	0	0	0	02:21	0	3	-3	01:16
Ranger	3	3	0	09:05	3	1	2	07:49	0	0	0	00:00	0	2	-2	01:16
Lupul	3	3	0	18:23	3	2	1	16:02	0	0	0	02:21	0	1	-1	00:00
Van Riemsdyk	5	4	1	18:45	3	3	0	14:51	2	0	2	02:49	0	1	-1	01:05
Gunnarsson	5	5	0	17:33	5	3	2	15:47	0	0	0	00:00	0	2	-2	01:46
McLaren	0	0	0	01:32	0	0	0	01:32	0	0	0	00:00	0	0	0	00:00
Bodie	6	2	4	14:13	6	1	5	14:13	0	0	0	00:00	0	1	-1	00:00
Kulemin	8	4	4	19:03	8	1	7	17:17	0	0	0	00:00	0	3	-3	01:46
Bozak	5	5	0	21:52	3	3	0	18:06	2	0	2	02:49	0	2	-2	00:57
Kadri	3	3	0	17:45	3	3	0	15:24	0	0	0	02:21	0	0	0	00:00
Rielly	3	1	2	19:15	3	1	2	17:13	0	0	0	02:02	0	0	0	00:00
Gardiner	5	4	1	18:28	5	3	2	16:07	0	0	0	02:21	0	1	-1	00:00
Clarkson	4	2	2	15:24	3	2	1	14:49	1	0	1	00:35	0	0	0	00:00
Kessel	6	4	2	21:30	5	4	1	19:16	1	0	1	02:14	0	0	0	00:00
Bernier	16	12	4	59:51	14	7	7	51:31	2	0	2	05:10	0	5	-5	03:10

An excellent game from the line of Bodie-Kulemin-Raymond, as the Russian seems to have adapted extremely well to playing in the middle. Kulemin was the best Leaf in the game, with a game high +7, and Raymond and Bodie were 2nd and 3rd at +6 and +5, respectively. The top line had a couple of goals, but was nothing special in chances, with Kessel a +1, and there were no real problems up front, with McClement and McLaren the only ones not on for a Leaf chance, but both getting limited icetime.

Phaneuf and Franson both had strong nights, but in different ways, as the captain was on for 7 Leaf chances for, while Franson excelled defensively, not on for a single Vancouver ES chance. The only negative player for the Leafs was Gleason, a -2 in 18 minutes.

The Canucks:

Player	F	A	D	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESD	EVTOI	PPF	PPA	PPD	PPTOI	SHF	SHA	SHD	SHTOI
Hamhuis	4	6	-2	24:37	4	5	-1	21:23	0	0	0	00:02	0	1	-1	03:12
Garrison	5	6	-1	22:57	3	5	-2	19:00	1	0	1	00:55	1	1	0	03:02
Booth	3	1	2	12:22	2	1	1	12:08	0	0	0	00:14	1	0	1	00:00
Kassian	1	3	-2	10:49	1	3	-2	10:44	0	0	0	00:05	0	0	0	00:00
Burrows	4	2	2	13:54	3	1	2	11:19	1	0	1	01:15	0	1	-1	01:20
Richardson	3	3	0	15:07	2	1	1	12:48	0	0	0	00:14	1	2	-1	02:05
Kesler	6	7	-1	23:46	2	7	-5	19:41	2	0	2	02:11	2	0	2	01:54
Stanton	1	3	-2	16:14	1	2	-1	14:06	0	0	0	00:00	0	1	-1	02:08
Higgins	5	5	0	22:06	2	5	-3	18:36	2	0	2	01:36	1	0	1	01:54
Dalpe	0	4	-4	05:59	0	4	-4	05:59	0	0	0	00:00	0	0	0	00:00
Sedin	7	1	6	18:45	3	1	2	15:23	2	0	2	02:11	2	0	2	01:11
Edler	6	8	-2	23:32	3	7	-4	19:19	2	0	2	02:15	1	1	0	01:58
Diaz	7	7	0	21:03	3	7	-4	18:40	2	0	2	02:23	2	0	2	00:00
Corrado	1	2	-1	11:53	0	2	-2	11:08	1	0	1	00:45	0	0	0	00:00
Sestito	0	5	-5	06:06	0	5	-5	06:06	0	0	0	00:00	0	0	0	00:00
Hansen	4	7	-3	21:51	3	6	-3	19:20	1	0	1	00:59	0	1	-1	01:32
Schroeder	5	3	2	16:14	3	3	0	15:05	1	0	1	00:45	1	0	1	00:24
Lain	0	5	-5	00:00	0	5	-5	06:41	0	0	0	00:00	0	0	0	00:00
Luongo	10	16	-6	59:51	7	14	-7	51:31	3	0	3	05:10	0	2	-2	03:10

Not many positives for Vancouver on the night, as only Sedin, Booth and Richardson managed to be net positive in chances. Even then, Sedin in particular was pretty quiet, only on for 3 Canuck chances. Kesler, who scored the goal, was a game-worst -5, along with Sestito and Lain. Dalpe, Edler and Diaz also had tough games.

Players with nice chance numbers:
Toronto - Nikolai Kulemin, Mason Raymond, Troy Bodie
Vancouver - Daniel Sedin, Brad Richardson, David Booth

Players with poor chance numbers:
Toronto - Tim Gleason
Vancouver - Ryan Kesler, Tom Sesito, Kellan Lain

Game 59 - Leafs 4, Tampa Bay 1 - Strong Leafs performance rewarded in Tampa

The Leafs' best offensive output of the season wasn't a high-scoring affair, but was a game that was close most of the way, with Toronto really coming on in the final period to get the win.

The first fifteen minutes of the opening period went heavily in Tampa's favour, but after a powerplay at the five minute mark, Toronto were excellent, getting seven straight chances to pull nearly level.

The second was an even period, with neither team establishing any stretches of real dominance; Toronto took the lead when Raymond was sprung through by Kulemin, and did well enough after that to win the period solidly. The Leafs then played one of their best third periods of the season, doubling up the Lightning in chances and getting three goals to pull away for a comfortable win.

The 28 ES chances, and 31 overall, are easily season bests for the Leafs, who were very dangerous in Tampa. The 20 chances against were one of the weaker defensive performances they've had, but they still managed to handily outchance the Lightning. The chances were closer while the game was close, as the Leafs only won 17-14 in that case.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Tampa Bay	Toronto	Tampa Bay
1	10	8	7	8
2	10	6	10	6
3	11	6	11	6
Total	31	20	28	20

Details below.

Game 58 - Florida 4, Leafs 1 - Toronto can't overcome deficit in first of Florida road trip

For the fourth game of their last five, the Leafs fell behind 2-0, but this time they didn't manage to stage any type of comeback, losing rather meekly in Florida.

The first period was one of the weaker 20 minutes Toronto has had recently, with just a single chance, as Florida dominated the frame 8-1. Bernier was solid, though, and Florida weren't able to take advantage. The Panthers did manage to get a goal in the second, but were only just ahead of the Leafs in chances, as Toronto managed to wake-up somewhat.

Florida extended the lead to two midway through the third, and the Leafs responded well, generating some good chances before Clarkson managed to score on his return to cut the lead back down. However, they weren't able to generate anything else before Matthias made the lead two again, and the Panthers were able to see the Leafs off in the last 6 minutes.

While the Leafs' numbers were bad, outchanced 19-14 at ES and doubled up, 16-8, 5-on-5 close, they did actually manage to win the last two periods, though score effects played a role in that.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Florida	Toronto	Florida
1	1	8	1	8
2	6	6	5	6
3	8	5	8	5
Total	15	19	14	19

Details below.

Game 57 - Leafs 6, Ottawa 3 - Toronto break open close game late

The final scoreline may have shown a clear win for Toronto, but it was anything but, as the Battle of Ontario was a tightly fought game, with the Leafs only getting ahead in the closing minutes.

Another bad start for Toronto, as they gave up a late goal in an otherwise quiet first, before falling behind by two midway through the second. They made a strong comeback in the second half, getting a pair of goals in quick succession, and handily winning chances in the frame.

After an exchange of goals in the first half of the third period, Toronto pulled away in the last 6 minutes, outchancing the Senators 5-0 over that stretch, and getting three goals, including an empty-netter, to secure the win.

Toronto won the chances, but narrowly, 16-13 overall and 13-12 at ES. Ottawa just edged the close chances, 9-8.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Ottawa	Toronto	Ottawa
1	3	3	2	3
2	6	4	6	3
3	7	6	5	6
Total	16	13	13	12

Details below.