Game 47 - Leafs 3, New Jersey 2 - Shootout settles close game for the Leafs

Coming in on a four game losing streak, Toronto managed to snap it hosting New Jersey, prevailing in the shootout, just as they did in the first game. Just like in that game, the two teams combined to go 1-for-6 in the shootout, with James Van Riemsdyk supplying the only goal each time.

Toronto played it tight early in the first, outchanced 3-1 in the first half, but came on strongly in the last 6 minutes, including a goal from Tyler Bozak to give them a lead on the scoreboard, to compliment a 7-4 lead in chances. Special teams defined the middle period, with the Devils getting ahead early on a Henrique goal, with Toronto answering through JVR, a lead that lasted less than 30 seconds. The Leafs could have been ahead again later in the frame, but a bizzare goalie interference call against Van Riemsdyk negated what looked like a perfectly good goal by Bozak. The Devils won the period in ES chances, but the time with the extra man meant that the two teams were level in the frame.

Toronto had a number of chances in the first part of the third, but did very little in an unadventurous last ten minutes, with just one ES chance between the two teams. New Jersey bossed the overtime period, something that hasn't usually been the case, as the Leafs have been good in overtime this year.

New Jersey narrowly took the game in ES chances, but that was on the back of overtime, as Toronto won 5-on-5 chances by one. In all, a pretty even game that probably deserved to be settled by a shootout.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	New Jersey	Toronto	New Jersey
1	7	5	7	4
2	8	8	3	5
3	4	5	4	4
4	1	4	1	4
Total	20	22	15	17

Details below.

Game 46 - Washington 3, Leafs 2 - Leafs improve performance, but blow third period lead to lose

With a whirl of criticism surrounding Toronto after their bad loss to Carolina on Thursday, they got right back out on the ice, and while the result was improved, there's not too much to be happy with in blowing a third period lead and dropping a fourth consecutive game.

After their early disaster the night before, the Leafs played a tighter first period, but were still clearly outchanced at even strength, with Washington taking a big chance lead in the first ten minutes, before Toronto was able to whittle it down a little with some powerplay opportunities.

The second was much more productive for the Leafs, with a stretch in which they had 10 of 11 chances, including a another solid run of powerplay time. Unfortunately, the one Washington chance in that run was a goal, former Leaf Grabovski feeding Ovechkin. Toronto were level at the end of the period, as they managed a powerplay goal through JVR, again using his good hands near the net. 

An early goal in the third, through Kessel, seemed like it might be a big step towards a good result for Toronto, but their problems defending a lead in the third came up again. An unlucky goal, Backstrom's pass deflecting in off a skate, leveled the game, and a goal just after a powerplay expired by Joel Ward put Washington ahead. The Leafs had a couple of good chances for the tie coming home, but weren't able to generate anything in the last 3 minutes, including with Bernier out late. They produced just two unblocked shots in that time, both from Kessel outside the scoring chance area.

Washington's first period saw them pull ahead in even strength chances, and they were never caught, as the Leafs only managed to stay about even in the other two periods. Toronto did win in chances overall, generating ten on special teams.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Washington	Toronto	Washington
1	5	6	2	6
2	10	3	4	3
3	8	8	7	7
Total	23	17	13	16

Details below.

Game 45 - Carolina 6, Leafs 1 - Another dismal Leafs performance makes for another defeat

One of the weakest Leaf performances of the season didn't end up looking so bad in terms of scoring chances, thanks to score effects, but the complete lack of organization in the defensive zone was an embarrassing performance that, for the first time, has started to bring some real media heat onto Randy Carlyle.

The Leafs had a very bad start, looking all at sea on a couple of Carolina goals in the first period, outchanced 6-2 at ES and 10-2 overall in the first 10 minutes, in addition to trailing by two. Some good play later in the period saw Lupul restore a little hope, but Carolina pulled ahead again when Dwyer added a third.

After a bonanza of chances in the first, the second was much more conservative, with Liles' early goal allowing Carolina to sit back quite a bit more. Staal's shorthanded goal in the early of the third, extending the lead to four, only empahsized this point; the Leafs won the period in terms of ES chances, but it didn't really matter, as Carolina were content to hold onto their lead and Khudobin was solid in goal.

Carolina won narrowly at even strength, but had a much larger victory overall, as they had a lot of power play time and did well in generating chances with the extra man.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Carolina	Toronto	Carolina
1	5	14	5	10
2	3	2	2	1
3	5	7	5	2
Total	13	23	12	13

Details below.

Game 44 - NY Islanders 5, Leafs 3 - Toronto wastes strong start, gets poor goaltending in loss

Some struggles for Jonathan Bernier in the Leafs' net, his second straight poor outing, ended up costing the Leafs in a game where they outchanced their opponents. And, yet again, the Leafs struggled chasing a lead, an area that they have had problems with on several occasions this year.

Toronto dominated the opening period, winning the chance battle 8-2, but left the period tied, as Tyler Bozak's tip-in goal was cancelled out by a long shot from Kyle Okposo that Bernier fluffed. The Isles then managed to win the second period in chances, but it was again tied, Bernier's misjudgement of a puck to allow Grabner a wraparound goal matched by a rebound goal from Mason Raymond.

Falling behind early in the third really killed the Leafs, with Nielsen finishing a powerplay chance, and de Haan extending the lead to two with a long range shot. The Leafs generated just three chances in the 14 minutes after that 4th Islander goal, and while one was converted, by Joffrey Lupul, that was the last chance the Leafs managed during the game.

Toronto narrowly won the chance battle, but generating just two at ES in a third period in which you trail for most of it is pathetic. Credit to the Isles for playing a good defensive road game in that last frame, but Toronto will have to do better if they want to hold off the hordes at their heels in the standings.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	NY Islanders	Toronto	NY Islanders
1	8	3	8	3
2	4	5	1	4
3	3	3	2	2
Total	15	11	11	9

Details below.

Game 43 - NY Rangers 7, Leafs 1 - Leafs collapse after Winter Classic

After a nice start to 2014, the Leafs were brought down to earth, getting badly beaten at home against the Rangers on Saturday night. It was an odd game, as despite the scoreline, the Leafs weren't actually that badly outchanced. That's partly score effects, but it also points to a night with some big breakdowns and less than stellar goaltending.

A very busy opening period saw the Rangers take the chances, but get somewhat fortunate with the goals, with one coming from a tipped point shot in a crowd and the other a terrible effort from Bernier, who seemed totally caught out by Moore's shot.

New York had some good powerplay chances in the first half of the second, then but weren't able to score. The two teams exchanged chances in the back half of the period, but New York's were much more fruitful, Pouliot wide open to finish a pass from Staal and Kreider driving to the net, with Dom Moore then dancing around Gardiner for a second. The Leafs won the chance battle the rest of the way, but with the score so lopsided, there wasn't much action from either side, and no impetus from the Rangers to take any chances.

The game ended fairly even on ES chances, with the Rangers just edging Toronto, and even if you consider only the chances while the game was close, New York only narrowly had an advantage. Of course, they took advantage of their chances, while Toronto hit a couple of posts, and by the time the Leafs were behind by a hatful, the chances aren't really that meaningful.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	NY Rangers	Toronto	NY Rangers
1	8	13	8	13
2	9	9	9	6
3	2	5	1	2
Total	19	27	18	21

Details below.

Game 42 - Leafs 3, Detroit 2 (SO) - Leafs win Winter Classic in shootout

I'll admit that the Winter Classic is an event that hasn't had a lot of appeal for me in recent seasons; the first Heritage Classic was an event, but it's become less and less interesting over time. Of course, with the Leafs involved I was a whole lot more interested, and with a split crowd of over 100 thousand people, it made for a great spectacle.

The opening period was a slow one, with not a lot of action going on. Detroit got a few powerplay chances, but at 5-on-5 there wasn't much for either side. In the second, both teams started to find their legs, culminating in a Daniel Alfredsson goal that gave the Wings the lead. After that, the game came alive, the two teams combining for ten chances in the remainder of the period, after generating just twelve in the first half of the game. The Leafs managed to draw level in the last minute of the period, but were slightly behind in chances.

Toronto then pulled ahead early in the third, Bozak getting another point on his return, tipping in a Phaneuf shot. The Leafs then actually did a fairly strong job of defending a lead, as they managed to keep Detroit from getting a single chance until, of course, they managed a tying goal. After a couple more Detroit chances, the teams saw off the last few minutes to go to overtime. With no goals coming in the extra period, the game was settled in the shootout, their fifth in the last six games

The Leafs narrowly lost each period, which ended up to a fairly substantial loss in chances overall. Given how much powerplay time the Wings had, Toronto holding on to manage the win is an excellent result in a fairly mediocre game.

A summary of the scoring chances:
 

Status	Overall		ES
Team	Toronto	Detroit	Toronto	Detroit
1	2	5	1	2
2	6	10	5	7
3	1	4	1	4
4	2	3	2	3
Total	11	22	9	16

Details below.

Halfway point summary - Player data

Having already discussed the team stats, I'll move onto looking at the players.

First, forwards who have played at least 100 minutes minutes overall at even strength. This excludes 7 players (McLaren, D'Amigo, Bodie, Leivo, Broll, Devane and Abbott):

F/20, A/20 and N/20 are the even strength chance rates per 20 minutes ice time.

Overall	ESF	ESA	ESD	ES%	ESTOI	AvESTOI	F/20	A/20	N/20
Kadri	176	187	-11	48.5%	556:49	15:02	6.3	6.7	-0.4
Kessel	217	248	-31	46.7%	696:01	16:58	6.2	7.1	-0.9
Bolland	41	47	-6	46.6%	202:59	13:31	4.0	4.6	-0.6
Kulemin	86	99	-13	46.5%	377:07	13:00	4.6	5.3	-0.7
Van Riemsdyk	193	224	-31	46.3%	628:29	16:06	6.1	7.1	-1.0
Clarkson	101	122	-21	45.3%	447:03	15:24	4.5	5.5	-0.9
McClement	101	125	-24	44.7%	515:53	12:53	3.9	4.8	-0.9
Ashton	23	29	-6	44.2%	128:51	07:09	3.6	4.5	-0.9
Smith	50	65	-15	43.5%	251:11	10:02	4.0	5.2	-1.2
Bozak	74	99	-25	42.8%	278:42	16:23	5.3	7.1	-1.8
Raymond	148	199	-51	42.7%	600:00	14:38	4.9	6.6	-1.7
Lupul	114	161	-47	41.5%	494:05	15:26	4.6	6.5	-1.9
Holland	69	98	-29	41.3%	241:03	12:41	5.7	8.1	-2.4
Orr	20	30	-10	40.0%	174:52	06:01	2.3	3.4	-1.1
Smithson	8	26	-18	23.5%	119:10	07:00	1.3	4.4	-3.0

It's interesting to see Nazem Kadri getting called out by Randy Carlyle, and to see his name in trade rumours. By this scoring chance metric, Kadri has been the Leafs' best 5-on-5 forward. He's the best 5-on-5 forward in Corsi as well, but the points haven't been there quite as much as the likes of Kessel and Van Riemsdyk. 

Speaking of Kessel, he is behind Kadri in second place for %, and just behind Kadri in terms of generating chances as well. A surprise third is Nikolai Kulemin, who recovered from a miserable start to the season, after his early injury, and has been excellent lately. I was surprised to see that Kulemin actually has a better ESP/60 minutes than JVR, despite getting harder assignments and much worse linemates. Jay McClement, at one point also very poor, has improved, to the point where he's now ahead of the likes of Bozak and Holland.

Peter Holland has gotten a lot of points, but this has come despite some very poor chance percentages. There's a simple explanation for this, as he's easily been the worst defensive forward on the team. The big disappointment has been Joffrey Lupul, who has not generated much offense, and had a tough time at the other end as well. 

Jerred Smithson's abysmal numbers are stunning, though he is hampered by getting a lot of defensive zone starts, it's not by enough relative to the likes of McClement to justify him playing. He doesn't look like an NHL player, and if another centre injury crops up, the Leafs should trawl the waiver wire or look at some move for just about anyone else.

In terms of rates, the best at producing chances per 20 have been the main three, Kadri, Kessel and JVR. The only player close is Holland, while Bozak is the only other player generating more than 5/20. The worst at generating chances was Smithson, who managed to generate even less than Colton Orr.

Peter Holland's 8 chances against per 20 minutes is a full chance per period worse than the next closest player, with the line of Bozak, JVR and Kessel all even at just over 7/20. Orr, Smithson and Ashton, for the most part spending time on low-event lines, were the best in terms of preventing chances, while of the more regular players Bolland and McClement were the best.


I also put together some data on forward lines:

These have some pretty small sample sizes, but here's every line on for at least 20 total chances (unfortunately, I don't have icetime for these line combos).

Line	For	Against	Diff	%
Kadri-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	81	69	12	54.0%
Bozak-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	63	61	2	50.8%
Holland-Lupul-Raymond	22	33	-11	40.0%
Smith-Clarkson-Raymond	18	24	-6	42.9%
Holland-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk	16	26	-10	38.1%
Kadri-Clarkson-Raymond	20	22	-2	47.6%
Smith-Lupul-Clarkson	14	15	-1	48.3%
McClement-Clarkson-Kulemin	17	11	6	60.7%
Kadri-Lupul-Clarkson	9	12	-3	42.9%
Kadri-Lupul-Broll	7	13	-6	35.0%
McClement-D'Amigo-Kulemin	14	6	8	70.0%
Kadri-Lupul-Raymond	10	10	0	50.0%

Kadri didn't get the points with Kessel and JVR that Bozak did, but he's been better in generating chances. No surprise to see that McClement, Clarkson and Kulemin, which has been excellent, is on that list. Holland has done poorly with both of the top line combinations. 


Next, the defense:

Overall	Pos	ESF	ESA	ESD	ES%	ESTOI	AvESTOI	F/20	A/20	N/20
Gunnarsson	D	175	185	-10	48.6%	673:01	16:24	5.2	5.5	-0.3
Phaneuf	D	168	199	-31	45.8%	681:32	17:28	4.9	5.8	-0.9
Ranger	D	124	154	-30	44.6%	543:48	16:28	4.6	5.7	-1.1
Rielly	D	129	162	-33	44.3%	515:03	16:05	5.0	6.3	-1.3
Liles	D	28	36	-8	43.8%	96:40	16:06	5.8	7.4	-1.7
Fraser	D	55	72	-17	43.3%	230:25	12:48	4.8	6.2	-1.5
Gardiner	D	181	243	-62	42.7%	747:59	18:41	4.8	6.5	-1.7
Franson	D	151	210	-59	41.8%	638:50	16:22	4.7	6.6	-1.8

Carl Gunnarsson has pulled away as the top defenseman, clear of his partner Phaneuf. The two have some of the worst Corsi ratings on the team, but posted high PDO, which could suggest that they may regress. However, the fact that they also have better chance %s than corsi suggests that they may actually be effective at limiting the quality of shots against, which could mitigate a potential regression in goaltending performance. Of course, I don't have any data to support that theory, it could be that their chance ratings are a house of cards as well, and that when they come back the Leafs could be in rough shape.

Cody Franson continued to struggle, putting up the worst percentage. Jake Gardiner, who leads the team in ES icetime, hasn't really done much with that, also very low. Liles generated a good number of chances, but was vulnerable defensively, while Ranger has had some big errors (though not so many recently), but hasn't been bad overall.
 

Pairing	For	Against	Diff	%
Phaneuf-Gunnarsson	118	134	-16	46.8%
Franson-Gardiner	75	93	-18	44.6%
Ranger-Gardiner	49	57	-8	46.2%
Franson-Rielly	36	56	-20	39.1%
Fraser-Ranger	22	34	-12	39.3%
Rielly-Gardiner	27	22	5	55.1%
Ranger-Rielly	29	26	3	52.7%
Fraser-Rielly	11	17	-6	39.3%
Franson-Gunnarsson	16	10	6	61.5%
Gunnarsson-Gardiner	14	13	1	51.9%
Phaneuf-Gardiner	11	22	-11	33.3%
Liles-Rielly	9	19	-10	32.1%

Gardiner and Franson's numbers don't look as bad here, which is a bit of a statistical oddity; they've done poor at non 5-on-5 ES, and a relatively small number of those chances changes the numbers a little against their favour. Still, the Rielly-Gardiner partnership is looking solid; while Franson-Rielly and Fraser-Ranger were really poor. I'd be interested to see if Rielly and Gardiner can be effective playing together, and to get Franson going more whether he should be given time with Gunnarsson, plugging some one else into a spot alongside Phaneuf.


Next, the powerplay. Here's every player with at least 30 minutes in PP time.

PP/2 indicates the number of net chances a player is on for per 2 minutes of power play time.

Overall	Pos	PPF	PPA	PPD	PP%	PPTOI	AvPPTOI	PP/2
Phaneuf	D	94	11	83	89.5%	139:17	03:34	1.19
Kessel	F	95	10	85	90.5%	136:59	03:20	1.24
Van Riemsdyk	F	92	8	84	92.0%	132:23	03:23	1.27
Franson	D	83	10	73	89.2%	125:27	03:13	1.16
Kadri	F	54	6	48	90.0%	93:03	02:30	1.03
Lupul	F	68	6	62	91.9%	91:51	02:52	1.35
Gardiner	D	56	5	51	91.8%	89:03	02:13	1.15
Raymond	F	44	6	38	88.0%	80:14	01:57	0.95
Rielly	D	28	3	25	90.3%	56:14	01:45	0.89
Clarkson	F	25	5	20	83.3%	48:36	01:40	0.82
Bozak	F	28	4	24	87.5%	45:51	02:41	1.05

The Leafs have been decent on the powerplay, with Kessel, JVR and Lupul being the most effective. Kadri has lagged behind the top line, but he hasn't been much different than Bozak. The second unit, getting relatively little time, has clearly lower numbers, with Clarkson being the least productive powerplay player.


Shorthanded next. Players with at least 30 SH minutes. Again, SH/2 is equivalent to PP/2, net chances per 2 minutes shorthanded.

Overall	Pos	SHF	SHA	SHD	SH%	SHTOI	AvSHTOI	SH/2
McClement	F	4	113	-109	3.4%	145:31	03:38	-1.50
Gunnarsson	D	2	103	-101	1.9%	132:44	03:14	-1.52
Phaneuf	D	3	105	-102	2.8%	130:28	03:20	-1.56
Kulemin	F	0	55	-55	0.0%	78:23	02:42	-1.40
Franson	D	4	44	-40	8.3%	70:37	01:48	-1.13
Ranger	D	4	37	-33	9.8%	67:27	02:02	-0.98
Van Riemsdyk	F	4	44	-40	8.3%	64:41	01:39	-1.24
Raymond	F	3	33	-30	8.3%	56:21	01:22	-1.06
Fraser	D	2	30	-28	6.3%	43:54	02:26	-1.28
Smithson	F	0	21	-21	0.0%	31:14	01:50	-1.34

The Leafs' penalty killing has struggled, with McClement, Gunnarsson and Phaneuf posting some poor numbers (though again, I think this is stronlgy due to the amount of time they spend out there and how much of #1 untis they see). Raymond and Ranger have been the most effective penalty killers, it might be worthwhile to give them more time in an effort to get the PK% out of the bottom five.


Finally, the goaltenders.

Overall	Pos	#	F	A	D	%	TOI	ESF	ESA	ESD	ES%	ESTOI	F/20	A/20	N/20
Bernier	G	28	428	507	-79	45.8%	1585:46	337	396	-59	46.0%	1293:18	5.2	6.1	-0.9
Reimer	G	18	221	307	-86	41.9%	910:48	166	233	-67	41.6%	748:02	4.4	6.2	-1.8

Overall	Pos	#	PPF	PPA	PPD	PP%	PPTOI	SHF	SHA	SHD	SH%	SHTOI	AVTOI	PP/2	SH/2
Bernier	G	28	87	10	77	89.7%	144:23	4	101	-97	3.8%	148:05	56:38	1.07	-1.31
Reimer	G	18	51	7	44	87.9%	73:39	4	67	-63	5.6%	88:30	50:36	1.19	-1.42

There's a pretty clear gap between the two goalies now, with the team playing poorly in front of Bernier, but terribly in front of Reimer.


CA: Chances against
CGA: Chance goals against
NCGA: Nonchance goals against
CSV%: Chance "save" percentage

Overall	Pos	#	CA	CGA	GA	NCGA	CSV%	ESCA	ESCGA	ESGA	ESNCGA	ESCSV%
Bernier	G	28	507	51	64	13	0.899	396	36	42	6	0.909
Reimer	G	18	307	39	43	4	0.873	233	27	31	4	0.884

 

Overall	Pos	#	PPCA	PPCGA	PPGA	PPNCGA	PPCSV%	SHCA	SHCGA	SHGA	SHNCGA	SHCSV%
Bernier	G	28	10	2	2	0	0.800	101	13	20	7	0.871
Reimer	G	18	7	0	0	0	1.000	67	12	12	0	0.821

This is my attempt to assess the quality of the goaltenders, by determining what percentage of chances they save; Reimer has clearly taken a dive at both even strength and shorthanded in the second quarter of the season, with Bernier establishing himself as the lead goalie. That high number of non-chance goals against on the powerplay for Bernier is a little odd, it could be something odd going on in my database.
 
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