Leafs scoring chances - Team Summary

This is a quick summary post of the 82-game season, in terms of chances. I'll have some more detailed individual summary posts in the coming days.

Game	Opp	Overall				ES				PP				SH
		ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
1	MTL	22	24	-2	47.8%	10	18	-8	35.7%	11	3	8	78.6%	1	3	-2	25.0%
2	PHI	10	20	-10	33.3%	7	11	-4	38.9%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	9	-8	10.0%
3	OTT	27	19	8	58.7%	21	18	3	53.8%	6	0	6	100.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
4	COL	19	17	2	52.8%	16	16	0	50.0%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
5	NSH	17	13	4	56.7%	13	8	5	61.9%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
6	EDM	17	21	-4	44.7%	14	14	0	50.0%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	7	-7	0.0%
7	MIN	7	18	-11	28.0%	3	11	-8	21.4%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
8	CAR	13	23	-10	36.1%	11	18	-7	37.9%	1	1	0	50.0%	1	4	-3	20.0%
9	CHI	9	25	-16	26.5%	6	19	-13	24.0%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
10	ANA	11	15	-4	42.3%	10	10	0	50.0%	1	0	1	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
11	CLB	13	22	-9	37.1%	9	16	-7	36.0%	4	2	2	66.7%	0	4	-4	0.0%
12	PIT	13	21	-8	38.2%	7	12	-5	36.8%	4	0	4	100.0%	2	9	-7	18.2%
13	EDM	12	19	-7	38.7%	11	16	-5	40.7%	1	0	1	100.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
14	CGY	13	17	-4	43.3%	12	13	-1	48.0%	1	0	1	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
15	VAN	12	20	-8	37.5%	9	15	-6	37.5%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
16	NJD	18	15	3	54.5%	9	15	-6	37.5%	8	0	8	100.0%	1	0	1	100.0%
17	BOS	14	20	-6	41.2%	11	15	-4	42.3%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
18	MIN	14	26	-12	35.0%	9	17	-8	34.6%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	9	-9	0.0%
19	BUF	17	10	7	63.0%	14	5	9	73.7%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
20	BUF	17	14	3	54.8%	13	12	1	52.0%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
21	NYI	20	21	-1	48.8%	17	17	0	50.0%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
22	NSH	19	18	1	51.4%	15	14	1	51.7%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
23	WAS	25	26	-1	49.0%	23	20	3	53.5%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
24	CLB	5	18	-13	21.7%	5	13	-8	27.8%	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	0	5	-5	0.0%
25	PIT	14	26	-12	35.0%	12	21	-9	36.4%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
26	BUF	16	19	-3	45.7%	14	13	1	51.9%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
27	MTL	12	26	-14	31.6%	10	19	-9	34.5%	2	3	-1	40.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
28	SJS	19	20	-1	48.7%	11	14	-3	44.0%	8	1	7	88.9%	0	5	-5	0.0%
29	DAL	18	28	-10	39.1%	13	21	-8	38.2%	4	1	3	80.0%	1	6	-5	14.3%
30	OTT	15	27	-12	35.7%	12	19	-7	38.7%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	8	-7	11.1%
31	BOS	21	14	7	60.0%	16	12	4	57.1%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
32	LAK	24	11	13	68.6%	19	10	9	65.5%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
33	STL	10	26	-16	27.8%	8	22	-14	26.7%	2	1	1	66.7%	0	3	-3	0.0%
34	CHI	23	15	8	60.5%	20	13	7	60.6%	3	1	2	75.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
35	PIT	19	19	0	50.0%	16	17	-1	48.5%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
36	FLA	16	16	0	50.0%	13	12	1	52.0%	2	1	1	66.7%	0	3	-3	0.0%
37	PHX	12	17	-5	41.4%	11	16	-5	40.7%	1	1	0	50.0%	0	0	0	-
38	DET	12	20	-8	37.5%	8	19	-11	29.6%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	0	0	-
39	NYR	19	23	-4	45.2%	15	15	0	50.0%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	8	-8	0.0%
40	BUF	26	21	5	55.3%	21	19	2	52.5%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
41	CAR	15	25	-10	37.5%	11	25	-14	30.6%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	0	0	-
42	DET	11	22	-11	33.3%	9	16	-7	36.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
43	NYR	19	27	-8	41.3%	18	21	-3	46.2%	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	0	6	-6	0.0%
44	NYI	15	11	4	57.7%	11	9	2	55.0%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
45	CAR	13	23	-10	36.1%	12	13	-1	48.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%	1	9	-8	10.0%
46	WAS	23	17	6	57.5%	13	16	-3	44.8%	8	0	8	100.0%	2	1	1	66.7%
47	NJD	20	22	-2	47.6%	15	17	-2	46.9%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
48	BOS	13	22	-9	37.1%	7	17	-10	29.2%	5	2	3	71.4%	1	3	-2	25.0%
49	BUF	15	13	2	53.6%	12	11	1	52.2%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
50	MTL	16	20	-4	44.4%	13	16	-3	44.8%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	4	-4	0.0%
51	PHX	12	24	-12	33.3%	8	13	-5	38.1%	4	5	-1	44.4%	0	6	-6	0.0%
52	COL	17	18	-1	48.6%	13	16	-3	44.8%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
53	DAL	8	22	-14	26.7%	8	19	-11	29.6%	0	2	-2	0.0%	0	1	-1	0.0%
54	WPG	15	19	-4	44.1%	12	15	-3	44.4%	3	1	2	75.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
55	TBL	17	23	-6	42.5%	13	13	0	50.0%	2	3	-1	40.0%	2	7	-5	22.2%
56	FLA	17	18	-1	48.6%	12	14	-2	46.2%	4	1	3	80.0%	1	3	-2	25.0%
57	OTT	16	13	3	55.2%	13	12	1	52.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	1	0	50.0%
58	FLA	15	19	-4	44.1%	14	19	-5	42.4%	0	0	0	-	1	0	1	100.0%
59	TBL	31	20	11	60.8%	28	20	8	58.3%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	0	0	-
60	VAN	16	12	4	57.1%	14	7	7	66.7%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
61	NYI	14	25	-11	35.9%	12	19	-7	38.7%	1	2	-1	33.3%	0	0	0	-
62	MTL	15	18	-3	45.5%	13	15	-2	46.4%	1	1	0	50.0%	1	2	-1	33.3%
63	CLB	16	19	-3	45.7%	11	19	-8	36.7%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	0	0	-
64	NYR	23	22	1	51.1%	22	19	3	53.7%	1	1	0	50.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
65	PHI	23	18	5	56.1%	22	12	10	64.7%	1	0	1	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
66	ANA	12	28	-16	30.0%	9	22	-13	29.0%	2	0	2	100.0%	1	6	-5	14.3%
67	SJS	13	34	-21	27.7%	8	32	-24	20.0%	3	0	3	100.0%	2	2	0	50.0%
68	LAK	18	22	-4	45.0%	10	14	-4	41.7%	5	0	5	100.0%	2	8	-6	20.0%
69	WAS	13	18	-5	41.9%	10	12	-2	45.5%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	6	-6	0.0%
70	DET	19	23	-4	45.2%	13	18	-5	41.9%	4	0	4	100.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
71	TBL	23	18	5	56.1%	16	15	1	51.6%	3	0	3	100.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
72	MTL	23	13	10	63.9%	19	10	9	65.5%	2	0	2	100.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
73	NJD	17	19	-2	47.2%	8	16	-8	33.3%	5	0	5	100.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
74	STL	14	25	-11	35.9%	10	21	-11	32.3%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	3	-3	0.0%
75	PHI	14	21	-7	40.0%	10	14	-4	41.7%	1	2	-1	33.3%	0	5	-5	0.0%
76	DET	16	18	-2	47.1%	13	14	-1	48.1%	1	2	-1	33.3%	2	2	0	50.0%
77	CGY	12	13	-1	48.0%	12	11	1	52.2%	0	0	0	-	0	2	-2	0.0%
78	BOS	15	22	-7	40.5%	8	21	-13	27.6%	3	0	3	100.0%	1	1	0	50.0%
79	WPG	13	22	-9	37.1%	8	19	-11	29.6%	4	1	3	80.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
80	TBL	20	20	0	50.0%	17	17	0	50.0%	3	1	2	75.0%	0	2	-2	0.0%
81	FLA	20	27	-7	42.6%	14	21	-7	40.0%	2	1	1	66.7%	0	5	-5	0.0%
82	OTT	18	23	-5	43.9%	11	16	-5	40.7%	6	2	4	75.0%	0	5	-5	0.0%
Total	All	1335	1648	-313	44.8%	1026	1291	-265	44.3%	253	48	205	84.1%	26	304	-278	7.9%

The Leafs had a couple of brief periods where they got up above 50% in the 10-game rolling average, most notably in the time just around the Olympic break. The poor run right before that time, and the weak finish stand out, with the Leafs unable to even get to 45% consistently in the closing games of the season.
 

	Overall				ES				5-on-5 close
	For	Against	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%	ChF	ChA	Net	%
Corsi	2121	2744	-623	43.6%	1596	2125	-529	42.9%	1955	2694	-739	42.1%
Chances	1335	1648	-160	44.6%	1026	1291	-125	44.3%	586	750	-164	43.9%

Toronto outperformed their Corsi in terms of chances, but with both below 45%, it's not a surprise that they ended up struggling to compete for a playoff spot.

Period	For	Against	Ch%
1	321	427	42.9%
2	334	413	44.7%
3	320	401	44.4%
4	35	28	55.6%

At one point, the third period was the Leafs' weakest, but in the final quarter of the year, they had serious problems at the start of games, making the first period the weakest.

State	For	Against	Ch%
-4	18	21	46.2%
-3	27	38	41.5%
-2	114	126	47.5%
-1	202	231	46.7%
Trailing	361	416	46.5%
0	342	461	42.6%
Leading	266	354	42.9%
1	166	212	43.9%
2	73	91	44.5%
3	19	38	33.3%
4	8	13	38.1%

The Leafs didn't perform much differently when leading versus when the game was tied, which is a fairly damning statement on their performance with the scores level. They also were unable to get a majority of chances while chasing games. As shown below, this held even in the third period of games.

State	For	Against	Ch%
3rd Chasing	120	126	48.8%
-1	69	72	48.9%
-2	51	54	48.6%
3rd Defending	95	130	42.2%
1	55	82	40.1%
2	40	48	45.5%
3rd Other	105	145	42.0%

Even while chasing games in the third period, the Leafs were unable to generate the majority of chances in games; this contrasts with their opponents, who earned almost 60% of chances with the Leafs trying to defend a third period lead.

Period	Margin	For	Against	Ch%
1	-2	18	19	48.6%
1	-1	49	82	37.4%
1	0	194	261	42.6%
1	1	50	57	46.7%
1	2	7	3	70.0%
2	-4	3	6	33.3%
2	-3	13	15	46.4%
2	-2	45	53	45.9%
2	-1	84	77	52.2%
2	0	83	127	39.5%
2	1	61	73	45.5%
2	2	26	40	39.4%
2	3	12	19	38.7%
3	-4	15	15	50.0%
3	-3	11	18	37.9%
3	-2	51	54	48.6%
3	-1	69	72	48.9%
3	0	65	73	47.1%
3	1	55	82	40.1%
3	2	40	48	45.5%
3	3	7	19	26.9%
3	4	4	12	25.0%

The only score state which regularly occurred that the Leafs were above even in was while trailing by one in the second period; their number while tied in the second, though, was particularly pathetic.