Thursday, November 28, 2013

Game 25 - Pittsburgh 6, Leafs 5 (SO) - Toronto survive third period to earn a point

Through two periods, the Leafs looked in strong shape against a good Pittsburgh team, perhaps a bit fortunate to lead, but right in the game. After the third, they seemed lucky to survive to a shootout and earn a point.

While a quick Pittsburgh goal was a discouraging start, the Leafs struck back through JVR on the powerplay, then saw Nazem Kadri put them ahead. They trailed in chances after one, though.

The second was a wild period, Toronto seizing a 4-1 lead, before a couple of powerplay goals pulled the lead back to one; Tyler Bozak then provided a further twist with a goal in the last five seconds to restore the two-goal lead. This was Toronto's strongest period, as they won by three at even strength.

The even play of the first two periods then disappeared in the final frame, as Pittsburgh totally dominated the third. The Penguins generated 12 chances, 8 at even strength, along with a pair of goals, while the Leafs didn't put a single shot on net in the period, and didn't generate a single chance. Frankly, given this showing, the Leafs were lucky to make it to overtime, where they did come up with a chance (though it wasn't a shot on goal), and held Pittsburgh to one as well.

After the disaster against Columbus, the Leafs seemed in good shape in the first two periods, but fell off so badly in the third period that the game was almost as bad overall, and worse at even strength. However, it isn't even the worst two-game stretch of the Leafs season, with that honour going to the Carolina and Chicago games. The -12 and -8 were the worst for any period so far this season, though the third was not the first time the Leafs have gone chanceless in the third, as they did the same against New Jersey in that shootout win.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Pittsburgh Toronto Pittsburgh
1 6 9 5 9
2 7 4 6 3
3 0 12 0 8
4 1 1 1 1
Total 14 26 12 21

Details below.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Game 24 - Columbus 6, Leafs 0 - Abysmal performance leads to a blowout

The Leafs had their worst performance of the season to date against Columbus, and were duly punished for it, handily beaten 6-0.

Two quick Blue Jacket goals midway through the first period pulled them into a lead they'd never relinquish, and Toronto generated only two more chances before Columbus extended their lead to four midway in the second.

Toronto's scoring chance drought continued in the third, as they again generated only two chances, while watching Columbus add another pair of goals.

The eight chance deficit at even strength was one of the worse performances of the season, but not nearly as bad as their performance in Chicago. The real problem was the Leafs' inability to produce chances, as they had only 5 overall, their lowest of the season (they had fewer at ES in the first Minnesota game, though).

A summary of the scoring chances:



Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Columbus Toronto Columbus
1 2 5 2 5
2 1 6 1 5
3 2 7 2 3
Total 5 18 5 13


Details below.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Game 23 - Leafs 2, Washington 1 (SO) - Caps can't turn Corsi into chances

One of the biggest blowouts against the Leafs in terms of Corsi not only resulted in a Toronto win, but also in an extension of their streak of outchancing teams at even strength, as they came 5 minutes away from winning outright against Washington, before Ovechkin struck and left them to win it in a shootout.

The game started with a flurry of Washington chances, but Toronto responded well, and managed to win the last 16 minutes of the period 9-3, to end up taking the frame as a whole.

The second saw the Leafs get outshot, in particular on a bucnh of powerplay shots, but Washington's propensity for taking shots from the point, combined with the Leafs defensive approach, meant that the Caps generated only 4 chances all period, and only one at even strength, resulting in an easy Leafs victory on the chance front. In addition, David Clarkson scored again, putting the Leafs up on the scoreboard.

The final period saw Washington come out hard, dominating chances, and coming out with a deserved goal late in the game from Ovechkin. This was really a poor period from the Leafs, score effects are one thing, but to give up 11 chances, the worst third period of the season, is really troublesome; especially when they had a similar game recently against Buffalo.

While being heavily outshot, the Leafs won the chance battle, thanks to a good overtime period (an area where they've been strong all year). It's now a 5-game streak of not being outshot.

A summary of the scoring chances:



Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Washington Toronto Washington
1 9 7 9 7
2 8 4 6 1
3 4 14 4 11
4 4 1 4 1
Total 25 26 23 20

Details below.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Game 22 - Nashville 4, Leafs 2 - Toronto wins chances, loses after poor 2nd period

After opening with one of their stronger periods this season, the Leafs seemed to have the edge at home against Nashville, but weren't able to keep it up, eventually falling 4-2.

The Leafs managed 12 chances in an excellent opening frame; this came despite only being credited with 11 shots, as they hit a post and sent five chances wide. This lack of accuracy may have ended up hurting them, as despite their domination, they left the frame up only 1-0.

It was Nashville's turn to dominate in the second, and not only did they manage to better the Leafs' chance margin in the first, they scored three times to seize the lead going into the final period. Another early goal, a bad one from Bernier, really had Toronto on the back foot, and after the Leafs couldn't score on a solid stretch right either side of the 10 minute mark, they only managed one more chance the rest of the way. They did get a goal without a chance, when Kadri's long shot deflected in, but couldn't get closer than two goals.

Despite the defeat, this four-game stretch without losing the chance battle is the longest for the Leafs this year. Of course, it's also their longest stretch playing teams that aren't currently in playoff position, so the positive results in that aspect aren't unexpected.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Nashville Toronto Nashville
1 12 4 8 3
2 2 11 2 8
3 5 3 5 3
Total 19 18 15 14

Details below.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Scoring chance summary - Through 21 games

This is a quick summary of the Leafs' chance performance through the first 21 games. First, the team totals:



Overall ES PP SH
ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net % ChF ChA Net %
313 400 -87 43.9% 230 296 -66 43.7% 77 7 70 91.7% 6 97 -91 5.8%


Game 21 - Leafs 5, NY Islanders 2 - Leafs control Tavares line, win over Islanders

Toronto's first game against the Islanders had some touchy moments, but overall was a fairly strong one, relative to their normal performances, and they were able to resist a couple of late challenges from the Isles to get a second straight win.

The first was a pretty low impact period, as after Trevor Smith opened the scoring inside the first 30 seconds, there were just 6 more chances in the frame. The Isles then took some control early in the second, outchancing Toronto 5-1 in the first 9 minutes, only to allow Toronto to get back level in the second half. During this time, the Leafs scored a powerplay goal to extend the lead, but Casey Cizikas' late marker pulled them back within one to start the third.

The third was the most open period, the two teams exchanging plenty of chances. Toronto pulled back two ahead through Raymond, then Clarkson provided further insurance, with a late Kessel goal securing victory.

This was the 3rd consecutive game in which the Leafs didn't lose ES chances, their second such streak of the season. While trading chances so much with a lead in the third period isn't ideal, the Leafs were at least able to keep pace.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto NY Islanders Toronto NY Islanders
1 4 3 4 3
2 6 8 5 6
3 10 10 8 8
Total 20 21 17 17

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Game 20 - Leafs 4, Buffalo 2 - Leafs get revenge against Sabres, but almost lose it in the 3rd

The second part of a back-to-back with struggling Buffalo ended much better for the Leafs, as they earned a solid home win to break even. However, there were some major problems late in the game, as Toronto had one of its worst third periods of the season.

Through two, this was a dream game for the Leafs, they were up 3-0 after JVR scored a pair and Nik Kulemin broke his goalscoring drought, and had outchanced Buffalo 12-3 overall and 11-2 at even strength, including blanking the Sabres at even strength in the second.

The third was a strong answer from Buffalo; this is likely at least partially down to score effects, but getting outchanced 10-2 at even strength is concerning whatever the score is. Two goals early in the period meant Buffalo was chasing an equalizer for a good 12 minutes, but they weren't able to get past Reimer again, and Raymond scored a late powerplay goal to restore the Leafs' two goal lead.

Toronto won scoring chances again, though only barely, as they squandered most of their advantage in the first 2/3rds of the game in the final period. In fact, with this win, the Leafs outchanced their opposition in back-to-back games for the first time all season.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Buffalo Toronto Buffalo
1 9 2 8 2
2 3 1 3 0
3 5 11 2 10
Total 17 14 13 12

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Saturday, November 16, 2013

Game 19 - Buffalo 3, Leafs 1 - Toronto outchances Buffalo, but loses

Toronto's game with the last-placed Sabers would have seemed an easy one a couple of weeks ago, but a couple of factors made it tougher. Buffalo were coming in with a new head coach, after Ron Rolston was removed, and Nazem Kadri's suspension leaving the Leafs with only one regular NHL centre in Jay McClement.

The opening frame was fairly light on action, with Buffalo having some powerplay chances, but the even strength game pretty quiet. Toronto seized control in the second, pulling out to a lead, but allowed Buffalo to score on two of their five chances to end up with the lead after two.

The third saw a good example of score effects, as the Leafs had the better of the play, and kept Buffalo from getting any chances in the frame. While Toronto came close, and had a spectacular chance to tie blocked by Ehrhoff in the final minute, they weren't able to get a goal, and ended up going down on the road.

Toronto hadn't won the scoring chance battle at even strength since they played Anaheim, but got a dominant win in a game they ended up losing, mostly due to that dominant final period.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Buffalo Toronto Buffalo
1 2 5 2 2
2 8 5 6 3
3 7 0 6 0
Total 17 10 14 5

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Friday, November 15, 2013

Game 18 - Minnesota 2, Leafs 1 (SO) - Leafs blow lead in third period, Kadri suspended

Toronto completed its season series with the Wild, as they headed to Minnesota. The last game with the Wild saw Toronto get badly outchanced, Minnesota call on Josh Harding from the bench, and the Leafs pulling out a win. The return trip saw the first two parts the same, but Toronto weren't able to finish off the third, blowing a late lead and falling in the shootout, despite some excellent penalty killing.

The first period was a relatively even contest, with both sides having some powerplay opportunites, but not generating a lot at even strength. After that, though, the ice started to tilt Minnesota's way. They dominated the second at even strength, and Toronto was extraordinarily fortunate to have the lead after two periods.

The third period was again a struggle; with Minnesota generating some early chances on the powerplay, then getting a 5-minute stretch of man-advantage when Nazem Kadri was ejected. Toronto's PK was excellent for that time, allowing just one chance in the five minutes, but the Leafs gave up a goal in the last five minutes, Kessel giving the puck away, then having it deflect in off his skate. Minnesota looked like they might seize the win, generating a lot of pressure in the closing minutes, but Toronto held on for overtime. The Leafs have been good in extra sessions this year, and that didn't change in this game, as they came close through Rielly before losing out in the shootout.

Toronto's abysmal second period left them well behind in ES chances, while the amount of penalties they took helped to boost Minnesota's overall advantage.

A summary of the scoring chances:


Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Minnesota Toronto Minnesota
1 5 5 2 3
2 4 10 2 8
3 3 11 3 6
4 2 0 2 0
Total 14 26 9 17

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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Game 17 - Boston 3, Leafs 1 - One strong period can't sustain Leafs in Boston

A return to the scene of the crime for the Leafs, with their first game against Boston since they lost Game 7 of the first round series last year. They had a very strong second period, but struggled in the first and third, and being down by only one in the final minute was closer than it felt like they should have been.

The Leafs substantial chance deficit in the first mostly came down to a couple of bad shifts that saw Boston generate multiple chances, with the Bruins' goal coming on the powerplay.  The second saw a strong response from the Leafs, as they pulled the game even on ES chances, as well as getting a goal which wasn't a chance; Lupul roofed a shot from just outside the scoring chance  area. However, a late double minor against JVR left the Leafs killing a penalty across the intermission, and they'd pay in the third, Bergeron scoring to put the Bruins ahead.

After that, Boston were able to successfully kill off the game, allowing just a single ES chance against the rest of the way. The Leafs did get some chances on a powerplay with ten minutes left, but Boston's D totally shut down the game after that, with the last scoring chance for either team coming with 9:45 left.

That shutdown in the third prevented a possible Leafs comeback, and saw them lose the scoring chance battle again, by 6 overall and 4 at even strength.

A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Boston Toronto Boston
1 3 9 3 7
2 7 5 7 3
3 4 6 1 5
Total 14 20 11 15

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Saturday, November 9, 2013

Game 16 - Leafs 2, New Jersey 1 (SO) - Magic from Kessel saves a lackluster Leafs team

After a long week without Leafs hockey, Toronto got back into action with a home game that served as both their Remembrance Day game and the yearly Hall of Fame game. The opponents were New Jersey, who have struggled to score goals this season, something that wouldn't change in this game.

A dull first period didn't see many chances for either side, despite a lot of Toronto powerplay time, including a double minor to Tedenby and a decent stretch of 5-on-3 for the Leafs. The second period was more lively, as New Jersey dominated, outside of a good Leafs outing on the power play. Jonathan Bernier was excellent, turning aside 10 Jersey chances in the period.

In the third, it was again Toronto's powerplay that was key, as it generated three of the four chances they managed, including the opening goal, a gorgeous solo rush from Phil Kessel that will get replayed on lot of highlight shows. New Jersey responded with 3 chances of their own, but their goal actually wasn't a chance, Bernier managing to deflect a harmless looking shot up and over his own shoulder to tie the game.

Toronto had a couple of good chances in the extra frame, forcing a great save out of Schneider on a 3-on-1, and was able to get the win in the shootout, where New Jersey's has an abysmal record, yet to score this year.

Toronto being heavily outchanced at even strength continues a pattern, but a good powerplay effort was able to save them in this one.


A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto New Jersey Toronto New Jersey
1 4 2 3 2
2 7 10 3 10
3 4 3 0 3
4 3 0 3 0
Total 18 15 9 15

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Monday, November 4, 2013

Game 15 - Vancouver 4, Leafs 0 - Leafs lose Bolland and game to end Western swing

Toronto's Western swing came to a disappointing end, as they were soundly beaten in Vancouver, with former coach/GM Pat Quinn among those in attendance, as Pavel Bure was honoured by the home team. This was the second straight Saturday night road game when Toronto got manhandled against the West, but while the score of this game was worse than the Chicago game, the scoring chances were more even.

In fact, through the first period, the two teams were level at even strength, despite Vancouver's shot advantage, and their goal. In the second period, the Leafs got into a lot of penalty trouble, including a long 3-on-5, and lost out in chances, but not that severely. The Toronto penalty kill was actually fairly solid, holding Vancouver to relatively few chances in more than 14 minutes of powerplay time.

Still, Toronto did nothing with their chances, failing to beat Luongo, while 2 second period goals extended Vancouver's lead. The score effects in the third were evident in the rate of chances, with just two total in the first half of the period. Vancouver led in chances, winning overall by 8. In four of the last five games, the Leafs have been outchanced by 7 or more, but they've managed to win two of those, thanks primarily to some very good goaltending.

Ultimately, the key story of the game will be the injury to Dave Bolland, who suffered a lacerated leg, requiring surgery that will likely leave him sidelined for a long while. Without Tyler Bozak, and with the Marlies struggling at centre, meaning there isn't a clear option to call up, things could get ugly down the middle for the next few weeks.


A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Vancouver Toronto Vancouver
1 4 6 4 5
2 4 7 2 5
3 4 7 3 5
Total 12 20 9 15


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Friday, November 1, 2013

Game 14 - Leafs 4, Calgary 2 - Leafs outshot but chances don't track with it in Leaf win

Toronto completed a sweep of Alberta, with a 4-2 win in Calgary, in yet another game that saw the Leafs handily out shot, and behind in chances for much of it. However, the chance numbers, presented below, don't make it look nearly as bad as the shot and Corsi results do.

Despite being handily outshot, the two sides were relatively even in chances throughout the game. Toronto were level at even strength after one, but led by two, after Lupul opened the scoring and JVR scored a killer shorthanded marker in the last five seconds of the period.

Calgary made a strong push in the second, Stajan pulling one back late, and recording 6 chances and 20 shots. Toronto recovered in the third, playing excellent defense, allowing only two chances against. They did give up a goal to David Jones, but had re-established a two goal lead at that point, through Mason Raymond.Calgary didn't generate a chance after the Jones goal, which was their only chance in the last 18 minutes, a very strong performance to hold on for victory.

A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Calgary Toronto Calgary
1 6 8 5 5
2 3 7 3 6
3 4 2 4 2
Total 13 17 12 13

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